NEW ORLEANS – A jovial veteran barn foreman waiting to help lead his trainer’s set back to the Fair Grounds stables stood on a viewing platform at about the seven-eighths pole Wednesday morning. A bay filly from another barn, wearing a Brendan Walsh saddle towel, finished her gallop, pulling up and joining her pony, turning around to head off the track. “You can always tell the good ones right away,” the foreman averred.
A couple fellow onlookers exchanged a glance. The filly before them, one Bella Ballerina, radiated athleticism, light on her feet and racy, quite eager to get on with things while galloping round the far turn after starting her exercise. Her rider, one Erin Campbell, knows Bella Ballerina inside and out; a few overeager strides and Campbell had her charge back on a less aggressive, more manageable course.
Bella Ballerina is a good one, no doubt. She comes into Saturday’s Fair Grounds Oaks unbeaten in three starts, winner of the Golden Rod in Churchill in her second start at age 2, winner of the Rachel Alexandra here last month in her first start at 3. Any number of amazing 3-year-old fillies have run in the Fair Grounds Oaks over the last, say, 30 years, starting with Blushing K. D. in 1997. Some have trained like superstars, catching even the most untrained eye with their physical presence.
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Bella Ballerina, a random foreman’s observation notwithstanding, is not one of those. To date, her performance, like her appearance, suggests good, not great. But not every great horse bowls you over with bearing and presence, and where Bella Ballerina’s ultimate level lies, and whether she can follow in the hoofprints of her sister Pretty Mischievous and win the Kentucky Oaks remains to be determined.
What’s already determined: Bella Ballerina is a formidable short-priced favorite here Saturday in the Grade 2, $350,000 Fair Grounds Oaks. And while the 1 1/16-mile race, which drew seven entrants, is a key qualifier for the Kentucky Oaks – Oaks qualifying points distributed 100, 50, 25, 15, and 10 to the top five finishers – Bella Ballerina has accumulated 60 Oaks points. That’s already sufficient to ensure she makes the 14-horse Oaks field, which means Walsh can focus on getting the filly to the Oaks in the best possible manner rather than just making sure she gets into the Oaks.
“Remember, Pretty Mischievous finished second in this race,” Walsh said.
Pretty Mischievous did finish second in the 2023 Fair Grounds Oaks, taking a step back following a win in the Rachel Alexandra before hitting a new top in the Kentucky Oaks. This isn’t a one-to-one correspondence. Pretty Mischievous was third in the Golden Rod and came back in December to win the Untapable here before her Rachel Alexandra. She also had made three starts at 2, one more than Bella Ballerina, a different pattern.
Make no mistake: Walsh, whose star rises with each successive season, will absolutely not try to win this Saturday at the expense of winning on the first Friday in May. Which is not to say Bella Ballerina won’t win anyway.
Her competition might or might not include Luv Your Neighbor, the filly who passed her in upper stretch last month. Luv Your Neighbor’s connections, the Lael Stables of Roy and Gretchen Jackson and trainer Michael Stidham, could wait until Friday before deciding whether to run Saturday or await the Ashland Stakes on April 3 at Keeneland, Stidham said.
Luv Your Neighbor has made six starts and finished second in the last four of them. Beaten a head in the Untapable after her rider lost an iron at the three-sixteenths pole, she was beaten a neck Jan. 17 in the Silverbulletday after allowing the pacesetter, Taken By the Wind, the easiest of leads, waiting too long to attack. With blinkers added and a new jockey, Luis Saez, Luv Your Neighbor pressed just behind pacesetting Bella Ballerina in the Rachel Alexandra and overtook her in upper stretch. A winner at the eighth pole. Luv Your Neighbor could not match Bella Ballerina’s determined finish along the fence.
Is she hanging, waiting on her rivals? Are two-turn middle distances stretching her distance limits? Hard to say, but Luv Your Neighbor has held her flesh and continued training forwardly, Stidham said.
Miss Metoyer, a rail-drawn longshot pace player who has done all her dirt racing at Delta Downs; Oaklawn shipper Newtown Pike, second Feb. 6 in the Martha Washington there; Martha Washington fourth-place finisher Maximum Offer; the Brad Cox-trained Life of Joy; and Fair Grounds maiden route winner Love and Trust round out the field.
Love and Trust had enough speed to keep up in her sprint debut in January but faded to fourth and needed two turns to clear the maiden ranks here in February. She went wire to wire, winning with a decent 77 Beyer Speed Figure, and Jose Ortiz will use her speed for early position, trainer Cherie DeVaux said.
Fourth behind Bella Ballerina in the Golden Rod and second to another leading Oaks hope, Zany, in the Suncoast on Feb. 5 at Tampa, Life of Joy has trained with verve since her last start, Cox said, but morning hints of meaningful afternoon improvement will be required for contention.
Newtown Pike holds the most non-Bella Ballerina appeal, with three good races from three starts. Beaten a closing neck in the Martha Washington, Newtown Pike’s tough trip made her the best horse in that race. This, however, was not the filly’s intended path, an untimely and relatively minor illness forcing her scratch from the March 1 Honeybee at Oaklawn.
“She’s doing very good, had a good work last week, but missed one work earlier, so this is not completely ideal, but I think this ends up being a good spot for her,” trainer Lindsay Schultz said. And while Newtown Pike has little speed, she got into the Martha Washington better than in her previous start. “She was a little closer last time. I don’t think she’ll be totally out of it,” Schultz said.
Bella Ballerina has speed. Her jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, said she wanted to use too much of it after turning onto the backstretch in the Rachel Alexandra, fresh and eager, as in her Wednesday gallop. Bella Ballerina eventually assented to Gaffalione’s request to show some patience. That, Walsh said, has been a focus in her training since last year. If the other pace players want to come out roaring, Gaffalione can sit his mount behind them, Walsh said. A slower tempo and Bella Ballerina could lead again.
The heavy favorite almost certainly runs a competitive race, and no doubt, she’s a very good filly. How good? We might not know until May.
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