NFL divisional playoff weekend is here, which means we get four games of player prop odds menus to peruse.
To streamline things, I’ve crunched some numbers, analyzed some key metrics and pored over numerous game logs to come up with a player prop best bet recommendation for each of the four contests.
Tag along on these wagers by taking advantage of our top online sportsbook promo offers, which currently are extending up to a combined $6,550 in new customer welcome bonuses.
And, now, on to the props …
Texans at Chiefs best player prop bet: Xavier Worthy over 51.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)
Game time: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC, ESPN)
It was a slow start to the season for Kansas City’s speedy first-round draft pick out of Texas.
Getting used to Andy Reid’s complex offense requires some time, and Worthy averaged only 4.8 targets, 2.2 receptions and 27.3 receiving yards over his first nine games.
But over his final seven contests, before resting along with most of the other key K.C. players in the Week 18 finale, the rookie averaged 7.9 targets, 5.6 catches and 56 receiving yards.
One of Worthy’s best games during that second-half stretch was a seven-catch, 65-yard game on 11 targets vs. the Houston Texans in Week 16.
Now the the Texans are back in town for a postseason matchup.
And despite boasting a first-team All-Pro cornerback in Derek Stingley Jr., the Texans allowed the 12th-most receiving yards (151.1 per game) to opposing wideouts during the regular season.
Even in Houston’s 32-12 wild card rout of the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend, L.A.’s wide receivers totaled 211 receiving yards — with 197 coming on nine catches for slot receiver Ladd McConkey.
Worthy also plays in the slot, meaning he’ll mainly be insulated from Stingley and making the over play on his Saturday receiving yards total quite tempting.
Playing the over on Worthy’s reception total — set at 4.5 to 5.5 at most shops — is worth a look as well.
Commanders at Lions best player prop bet: Jayden Daniels over 54.5 rushing yards (-113 FanDuel)
Game time: 8 p.m. ET Saturday (FOX)
With the Washington-Detroit game total at a weekend-high 55.5 points, expect most of the contest’s player prop totals to be shaded to the over as well.
That certainly includes Jayden Daniels’ props as the Commanders’ prize dual-threat rookie QB will be counted on to keep pace with the Lions’ league-leading offense (33.2 points per game).
Beset by injuries, the Detroit defense has surrendered yards and points aplenty to the top-tier offenses it has faced this season.
And with the Lions playing man coverage at one of the league’s highest rates, opposing QBs have found plenty of running room, averaging 26.7 rushing yards per game — the fourth-highest mark in the league during the regular season.
Daniels rushed for 891 yards in 17 regular season games — second only to Lamar Jackson’s 915 yards among quarterbacks — and added 36 more in last Sunday’s 23-20 wild card playoff win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The pending NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year has rushed for 50 or more yards in eight games this season, and if the expected shootout breaks out Saturday night in the Motor City, Daniels is a solid bet to top his rushing yards prop total against the Lions.
Rams at Eagles best player prop bet: Saquon Barkley over 21.5 rushing attempts (-115 Fanatics)
Game time: 3 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC, Peacock)
Philly’s Sunday weather forecast is frightful with 3-5 inches of snow and gusty winds.
That, though, makes for good ground game weather, and the Eagles just happen to roster the league’s best running back.
Saquon Barkley led the NFL in rushing yards (2,005) and attempts (345), and that even included a game of for rest in Week 18.
In Philly’s 37-20 Week 12 rout of these same Rams, Barkley rushed for a career-high 255 yards and two TDs on 26 attempts while adding 47 more yards on four receptions.
In last week’s wild card win over the Green Bay Packers, Barkley rushed 25 times for 119 yards and has logged 22-plus carries in 10 of 17 games this season.
And with QB Jalen Hurts just weeks removed from a concussion and Philly’s overall passing game on a downswing of late, expect Barkley to get fed early and often on a snowy Sunday.
Ravens at Bills best player prop bet: Justice Hill over 22.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)
Game time: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS, Paramount+)
Baltimore vs. Buffalo is one of the most eagerly anticipated playoff games in recent seasons, and most of the player prop focus will be on the likes of MVP candidates and All-Pros Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Derrick Henry.
But I’m instead going with a prop play on the Ravens’ utility back.
With Henry handling 351 of the team’s 429 running back rushing attempts this season, including a playoff game, Hill has played the passing-downs role and played it well. He’s fourth on the team with 46 receptions for 396 yards and four TDs in 16 games — all career season highs.
And with Baltimore Pro Bowl wide receiver and leading pass-catcher Zay Flowers expected to miss a second straight game Sunday with a knee injury, Hill’s target share figures to be in for a bump.
That’s not necessarily the best news for the Buffalo defense, which surrendered a league-most 750 receiving yards (44.1 per game) to running backs during the regular season.
In the Ravens’ 35-10 Week 4 rout of the Bills, Hill hit season highs with 78 yards on six receptions, reeling in all of his targets.
And, now, even just matching a third of that Week 4 receiving yardage figure will put Hill over his prop total Sunday.