Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are meeting on the Super Bowl stage for the second time in the last three seasons.
Following are my early-Super Bowl 59 quarterback prop best bets for the Kansas City Chiefs-Philadelphia Eagles clash Feb. 9 in New Orleans (6:30 p.m. ET on FOX). New customers can get in on the action by taking advantage of our top online sports betting offers, which are worth up to $6,450 in welcome bonuses (see below).
The Chiefs’ 38-35 win over the Eagles two years ago in Super Bowl 57 produced some prodigious numbers with Mahomes (182 passing yards-44 rushing yards-3 total TDs) and Hurts (304-70-4) waging a statistical duel.
Expect plenty of public action on the “Overs” — especially following Philadelphia and Kansas City’s high-scoring conference championship game wins.
That means there will be value to be had on most of the "Unders." And try to get in on the "Overs" you like as early as possible.
And now for the best QB props …
Super Bowl 59 QB prop bets bets: Mahomes under 252.5 passing yards (-115 Caesars)
Mahomes averaged a career-low 245.5 passing yards per game this regular season and also set a career season low with 6.8 yards per attempt.
In his last nine playoff games going back through the 2022-23 season, Mahomes has averaged 241.8 aerial yards per outing. He’s thrown for 253 or more in only three of those nine contests.
The Eagles, meanwhile, limited opposing quarterbacks to an average of 192.1 passing yards per game during the regular season — the second-lowest mark in the league.
Much of that can attributed to the ball-hogging Philadelphia offense which is tops in average time of possession (32:07, excluding overtime) this season.
Super Bowl 59 QB prop bets bets: Mahomes over 6.5 rushing attempts (+108 FanDuel)
Over his career, Mahomes averages a mere 3.85 rushing attempts per game during the regular season.
But that average jumps to 5.4 rushes-per-contest with the increased stakes in the postseason. That, of course, includes kneel-downs which Mahomes has done quite a bit of, including a stunningly-good 17-3 career playoff record.
In his last seven postseason games, going back through the Super Bowl win over the Eagles, the K.C. QB has averaged 6.7 rushing attempts and 34.6 ground yards per contest. Mahomes has had six-plus rushing attempts in all but one of those seven games.
Super Bowl 59 QB prop bets bets: Mahomes under 0.5 interceptions (-118 BetMGM)
Mahomes set a four-year career low with 11 interceptions this season, and his 1.9 interception percentage matched his lowest mark over that span as well.
Five of the QB’s eight career postseason interceptions have come in his four Super Bowls, but overall he’s been picked off just once over his last nine playoff games (300 total attempts), including an interception-free outing vs. the Eagles in Super Bowl 57.
Don’t go overboard, though, betting on another interception-free Mahomes outing in New Orleans as the Eagles’ defense ranked 12th with 13 picks during the regular season and has added four more during its three NFC playoff victories.
Super Bowl 59 QB prop bets bets: Hurts anytime TD (-105 DraftKings)
This is my most highly-recommended QB prop on the early Super Bowl 59 board.
Hurts has scored a league-most 61 touchdowns in 60 regular season/postseason games since taking over as the Eagles’ full-time starter in 2021.
Credit Philly’s Famous Tush Push play for much of that production as 36 of those 61 TDs have come on 1- or 2-yard rushes, according to the informative folks at Pro Football Reference.
Hurts has tallied a rushing TD in 37 of his last 54 games (5 of 7 in the postseason) dating back to the start of the 2022 season. That includes 3-touchdown outings in this season’s NFC Championship Game rout of Washington and the Super Bowl 57 loss to K.C.
Super Bowl 59 QB prop bets bets: Hurts under 18.5 pass completions (-124 DraftKings)
The Philly QB averaged a career-low 16.5 completions per game this season as the ground-oriented Eagles lead the league with a 55.86 percent rushing-play percentage, including three playoff games.
As for Hurts’ 2024 game totals, he’s completed 19 or more passes in only five of 18 outings this season, finishing with 16 or fewer in 10 of those contests.
Now Hurts likely will need to air it out more against the Chiefs, who are stouter against the run than pass, but going under Hurts’ Super Bowl completion prop total looks to be the value percentage play.