Seven 3-year-olds, including Grade 1 winners Chancer McPatrick and East Avenue, were entered Tuesday for Saturday’s Grade 1, $1.25 million Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
The entire field for the 1 1/8-mile contest, from the rail out and with riders, is River Thames (Irad Ortiz Jr.), Render Judgment (Sheldon Russell), Burnham Square (Brian Hernandez Jr.), Owen Almighty (Jose Ortiz), East Avenue (Luan Machado), Chancer McPatrick (Flavien Prat), and Admiral Dennis (Luis Saez).
Five of the seven entrants have a new jockey. Irad Ortiz picks up the River Thames mount from John Velazquez; Hernandez picks up the Burnham Square mount from Edgard Zayas; Jose Ortiz picks up the Owen Almighty mount from Irad Ortiz; Machado takes the East Avenue mount for the injured Tyler Gaffalione; and, finally, Florent Geroux rode Admiral Dennis in his most recent race, a sixth in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
Prat, who has ridden Chancer McPatrick throughout his career, rode Wood Memorial entrant Rodriguez in his most recent race; Mike Smith takes that mount Saturday at Aqueduct. Prat also was aboard Derby-bound Publisher for his second-place finish March 29 in the Arkansas Derby, a race in which Jose Ortiz rode Sandman to victory.
An ominous weather forecast clouds the opening three-day racing week of Keeneland’s spring meet. Rain is expected to begin in Lexington about 2 a.m. Thursday and could persist through Sunday afternoon. The National Weather Service as of Tuesday believed the storm system could result in historic flooding, with perhaps as much as eight inches of rain falling over the period.
Keeneland on Tuesday afternoon issued a statement saying that the track was “closely monitoring the weather” but offered no details regarding the potential for cancellation or postponement of racing on Friday and Saturday. A Keeneland official as of midafternoon Tuesday hadn’t responded to a request for more information regarding the range of possible actions the track is considering.
The Blue Grass and two other Saturday stakes, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the Santa Anita Derby, are the last major qualifying races toward the Kentucky Derby. The top five finishers in all three races earn, respectively, 100, 50, 25, 15, and 10 qualifying points toward the Derby, which is limited to 20 runners. One starting spot is reserved for Luxor Cafe, the leader of the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, though that colt’s connections haven’t yet committed to the race. Whoever wins the U.A.E. Derby on Saturday will take the slot reserved for the leading points earner in the Euro/Mideast Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Only Owen Almighty among Blue Grass entrants has accumulated enough points to be assured a spot in the Derby, his 65 points eighth in the standings. Chancer McPatrick currently sits at 19th with 35 points, while Burnham Square is 23rd with 30 points, Render Judgment 24th with 29 points, River Thames 27th with 25 points, East Avenue 41st with 10 points, and Admiral Dennis 71st with two points.
Owen Almighty earned most of his points going wire to wire March 8 in the Tampa Bay Derby, and trainer Brian Lynch has expressed reservations about the colt’s suitability to distances at 1 1/8 miles and beyond. Chancer McPatrick at age 2 won the Grade 1 Hopeful and the Grade 1 Champagne, both one-turn races, but finished just sixth capping his 2024 campaign trying two turns in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Racing for the first time in blinkers, he rallied decently for second in the Tampa Bay Derby, where Owen Almighty was afforded an easy lead.
That sort of trip seems highly unlikely given East Avenue’s presence. A front-running Ellis Park debut sprint winner last summer, East Avenue set a fast pace and easily captured the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity in October at Keeneland. He stumbled badly and never came close to contention finishing ninth as the favorite in the BC Juvenile, but had no apparent excuse for a dismal, distant 10th-place finish launching his 3-year-old season Feb. 15 in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds.
River Thames also will push the tempo. He pressed the pace and finished a close second to Sovereignty making his stakes and two-turn debut March 1 in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park.
Burnham Square finished a tepid fourth as the Fountain of Youth favorite after winning the Holy Bull Stakes over Tappan Street, who annexed the Florida Derby last Saturday.
Render Judgment finished second, beaten nearly eight lengths by American Promise, in the Virginia Derby on March 15.
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