DEL MAR, Calif. – The scratch of morning-line favorite Sovereignty from Saturday’s $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar changes the narrative of what was and, albeit to a lesser degree, still is a fabulous renewal of North America’s richest horse race.
The storyline of the best 3-year-old in training taking on a stellar group of older males is replaced by this year’s race being a rematch of the top three finishers from last year’s Classic. And given how terrific a race that was, a reprise is not such a bad thing.
Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and Forever Young – three of the top 3-year-olds of 2024 – are all back here at Del Mar, where last year Sierra Leone took advantage of a hot pace, attended by both Fierceness and Forever Young, to win the Classic by 1 1/2 lengths. The victory helped Sierra Leone win the Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male.
Some argued that Fierceness ran the best race. He cruised to the front in the middle of the turn and fought on gamely through the lane before giving way grudgingly to Sierra Leone, a horse he twice previously defeated in the Jim Dandy and Travers.
Fierceness, the champion 2-year-old of 2023 following his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, is coming off a monster victory in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic, run, like the BC Classic, at 1 1/4 miles at Del Mar. He had the inside post that day and ducked in leaving the gate, nearly striking the rail and almost unseating jockey John Velazquez.
As fate would have it, Fierceness drew the rail for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in what is now a field of nine. Fierceness, with the scratch of Sovereignty, was made the 5-2 favorite on David Aragona’s adjusted morning line.
“He’s never done anything like that before, but I think it was circumstantial,” Pletcher said of Fierceness ducking in at the start of the Pacific Classic. “I think Johnny will be ready for it, and I think [he] can prevent it from happening. Last time, Johnny learned that he doesn’t have to necessarily be in the perfect position to be successful, so he could ride him a little bit more confidently depending on what the pacesetter does.”
The pacesetter will be Contrary Thinking. He’s in the race to ensure a fast pace for Sierra Leone, who, under Flavien Prat, will likely take up position in the back of the pack and come with a late turn of foot. The strategy worked in the Grade 1 Whitney, a race Sierra Leone won by one length. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Contrary Thinking, after a bumping incident at the start that led to the unseating of Irad Ortiz Jr. from Mindframe, set the pace, but Sierra Leone wound up finishing second.
Both Contrary Thinking and Sierra Leone are trained by Chad Brown.
“He needs to break well and nice and straight and get to the front and get out there happy and see how far he can take this field,” Brown, who has Florent Geroux to ride Contrary Thinking, said of the front-running longshot. “There’s $7 million on the line, and if, for some reason, he gets brave out there and he really takes to Del Mar, he can still be there turning for home.”
Sierra Leone, a 4-year-old son of Gun Runner, who won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar, has an opportunity for history in what will be the final race of his career before he stands stud at Coolmore America alongside Fierceness, who also is making his final start. Should he win, Sierra Leone would become just the second repeat winner of the Classic – being run for the 42nd time – joining Tiznow, who did it in 2000-01. Since then, six horses have tried to repeat in the Classic, with Zenyatta, the 2009 winner who lost by a head to Blame in 2010, coming the closest.
“He’s in position to repeat at the same venue, which is rare, and he’s coming off his best work of the season,” Brown said. “He’s coming into the race so well you can’t be distracted by the incredible quality of the field. You have to go by how your horse is doing, and he’s doing as well as he’s ever done. An added piece of confidence going into the race, on top of how magnificent the horse looks and how brilliantly he’s training, is the fact he’s got a really good race over this racetrack last year.”
Mindframe, with a victory in a loaded Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes in May and having defeated Sierra Leone on the square in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster in June, could be the best older dirt male in training. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup, after Ortiz was unseated, Mindframe ran loose around the track before basically pulling himself up at the quarter pole. Since then, he has been trained up to the Classic by Pletcher.
“It’s hard to quantify what he got out of the last race,” Pletcher said. “As far as preparation, everything’s gone according to plan. We got all the works in that we wanted and needed.”
Antiquarian, Pletcher’s third horse in the field, won the Jockey Club Gold Cup. It might have been overshadowed by the incident that happened early in the race, but the 108 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for that victory makes him a contender here.
Velazquez, having ridden Fierceness in 11 of his 13 career starts, stuck with him for the Classic, while Luis Saez rides Antiquarian.
Forever Young came within a nose of Sierra Leone when the two finished right behind Mystik Dan in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Forever Young got bumped very late by Sierra Leone, or perhaps he would have been second.
Forever Young returned to the United States for the Classic last year. Breaking from the rail, he was kept in close attendance to a pace that was 22.43 seconds for the quarter, 44.96 for the half-mile, and 1:09.44 for six furlongs.
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Yoshito Yahagi, trainer of Forever Young, said he expects Ryusei Sakai to ride him differently from post 5 on Saturday.
“Last year, he got an inside draw, so the start was kind of limited. That’s why he [was] close to the lead,” Yahagi said through an interpreter. “This year, [we drew] the ideal position. It’s better in the middle.”
Sovereignty may no longer be in the race, but Grade 1-winning 3-year-olds Journalism, Baeza, and Nevada Beach remain. Journalism and Baeza were second and third, respectively, to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. When not facing Sovereignty, Journalism won the Preakness and Haskell and was second to Fierceness in the Pacific Classic.
Journalism was further back in both the Haskell and Pacific Classic than his connections preferred. That could be the reason why Journalism will have a new rider, Jose Ortiz, replacing Umberto Rispoli in the Classic.
“Hopefully, we’ll go ahead and bounce on out of there and find ourselves in a nice tactical spot,” said Michael McCarthy, trainer of Journalism.
Baeza, trained by John Shirreffs, has some versatility as well. Following three straight losses to Sovereignty, Baeza won the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby, rallying from five lengths off the pace to get the win.
Nevada Beach was originally ticketed for the Pennsylvania Derby, but trainer Bob Baffert rerouted him to the Grade 1 Goodwood, where he beat older horses. Nevada Beach would give Baffert a fifth Breeders’ Cup Classic victory.
In most of those, Baffert said, “I knew going in I had the horse. This time, it’s going to be tough. He’s never run against these kinds of horses before.”
– additional reporting by Steve Andersen
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