DEL MAR, Calif. – You might have forgotten a filly named Hard to Justify. After all, her last start came in May 2024. Why bring her up? Hard to Justify’s victory in the 2023 Juvenile Fillies Turf marks the only North American-based 2-year-old turf win at the last two Breeders’ Cups.
European horses landed the other five Friday turf races, and they almost certainly will win more this Friday.
Juvenile Turf
While Gstaad easily is the best horse in the Juvenile Turf, post 14 complicates matters. Those willing to eat a short price would feel better were Ryan Moore in the saddle. Moore is out with an injury, leaving Christophe Soumillon as Aidan O’Brien’s temporary No. 1. Soumillon is an excellent jockey. He also never has ridden at Del Mar.
Gstaad debuted in an excellent maiden race: The second- and third-place finishers, True Love and Havana Anna, are major contenders in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Gstaad went off at 7-1, and “talking horses” trained by O’Brien typically get bet off the board. Nonetheless, Gstaad, making his only start around a turn, found late stride coming between rivals, jumping on True Love, a 2-5 shot, with a half-furlong remaining.
Favored in the Group 2 Coventry over a straight six furlongs at Royal Ascot, Gstaad showed out. He broke sharply from the stall nearest the stands, tracked the leader while only a couple lengths off the pace, asserted at the furlong grounds, and rolled to an impressive three-length victory. Yet, in post-race interviews, O’Brien sang the praises, not so much of Gstaad, but of a colt named Albert Einstein, hailing him as his best 2-year-old.
O’Brien had a couple races in mind for Gstaad’s next start and wound up sending him to the straight-course, six-furlong Prix Morny. Gstaad broke sharply, shared the early lead with American shipper Outfielder, dropped back a bit during the middle stages, and only really found himself the last half-furlong. With a good late surge, he came back to nail Wise Approach, who had passed him mid-race, and was going to get the winner, Venetian Sun, in a couple more strides.
It looked like the Morny’s six furlongs might have been a touch short for Gstaad. O’Brien said as much this week, going on to assert that lighting himself up at that true sprint trip put Gstaad on tilt for the seven-furlong National Stakes at The Curragh. Could be. Gstaad at 4-5 broke slowly for the only time but had no trouble settling behind cover while racing over a yielding course perhaps not ideal for him. Moore pulled him out with five-sixteenths of a mile remaining, and Gstaad looked like a winner up to the point where he lost a head-bob to solid but unspectacular Zavateri. Did he hang?
At Del Mar this week a turf writer (raises hand) asked O’Brien why Gstaad had raced so keenly in the Dewhurst, another seven-furlong straight course race. A gentle scolding ensued. Gstaad’s not a keen horse, O’Brien said, and merely reacted to Soumillon taking a hold, trying to keep from being caught between horses too close to the pace. Except Gstaad wasn’t between horses: There was one to his left, no one to his right. And it sure looked as if he had pulled too hard until Soumillon snugged him behind the rival on his left. Did the relatively brief struggle hurt his chances? Couldn’t have helped, and Gstaad in the last 100 yards could make no progress on upset winner Gewan.
Gstaad has the speed to get a position from his wide draw and the talent to overcome a less-than ideal trip. Your mileage may vary when it comes to singling in multi-race wagers.
North Coast rates nowhere near as high as Gstaad but is much better than his distant fifth in the National, where wet ground might have compromised him. North Coast has pace and generally has plied his trade on the front end. Third in his debut, he finished a neck in front of the O’Brien-trained Puerto Rico, who won the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere the first Sunday in October and at one point was thought to be O’Brien’s big hope for this race. At Down Royal second out he led racing round a turn and dominated extremely soft competition, but in his third race, over one mile, he took a little step back, wavering near the finish and coming up short. North Coast got a Group 3 win when cut back to seven furlongs in the Tyro, his third start around a turn, crushing favored Flushing Meadows, who had beaten him in June. North Coast’s positional pace could serve him well Friday and until the National flop he looked progressive.
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Ardisia, who debuted in April and has been out 11 times, ran in some really low-level races this spring, and even while winning displayed terrible gate habits. He was gelded after an 18th in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot, showed nothing in his next start, but since has become a far better gate horse while steadily improving. He has never raced beyond six furlongs but gives the impression he can get a Del Mar mile, and at Ascot on Oct. 18, facing his toughest competition, he was gaining late on victorious Mission Central, who has come for the Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Precise has post 13 but somehow feels less complicated and more reliable than Gstaad. Accordingly, she is 6-5 on the morning line compared to 9-5 on Gstaad.
Precise wasn’t favored until her fifth and most recent race, a dominating win in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile. She has done nearly nothing wrong and has made three starts over turning courses. Chalk up the debut defeat, her lone loss, to inexperience. After sitting just off the pace, Precise lost position halfway through the six-furlong contest, had to slightly alter course late, and just missed. The quality of the winner remains unknown since she never ran back.
Second out, Precise had figured out how to race, showing speed while going easily with her ears up, bossing overmatched foes. Her third out, the Goodwood stakes, made Precise work harder, and when first challenged by a better horse than she’d beaten, Precise wavered. It took her all of a half-furlong to figure out how to apply herself more comprehensively, and when she did, Precise was gone. Everything came together in the Moyglare Stud, where Precise was ridden from off the pace, the jockey not even bothering to find cover, Precise more dominant than her three-quarter-length margin. And by the Fillies’ Mile, Precise brimmed with confidence, ridden from behind again, making one quick move to reach contention before powering home.
Queen of Hawaii so far has been best of the rest. A diminutive filly who races with her head held low, Queen of Hawaii was slow into stride in her debut, finishing fastest but too far back to make an impression. She showed much more speed going around a left-handed turn in her second start, winning a decent race, and came forward again when ridden differently in her Group 3 score at The Curragh. The jockey let her settle before Queen of Hawaii showed a quicker turn of foot than in her first two starts, and she won going away over Moments of Joy, who came back to finish fifth, beaten 6 1/2 lengths, in the Fillies’ Mile.
Pacific Mission debuted over six furlongs. She was wearing a hood, lurched left-handed at the break, and raced in contention before fading with 1 1/2 furlongs remaining. That modest showing had her ready for start No. 2, which came without a hood but with another poor break and resulted in a win over suspect competition. The filly came forward again third out in the Group 2 May Hill, again breaking poorly, perhaps hitting the front slightly too soon, run down by a horse named Aylin, whom Precise had easily beaten.
Balantina, a tall, lanky filly who has employed a range of running styles, ran well at Royal Ascot finishing third in the Albany, won by Venetian Sun, the filly who beat Gstaad in the Morny. She has not raced since Aug. 20, when she was a flat fifth with no obvious excuse in the Group 2 Debutante at The Curragh.
Switch in Love, the Japan-based horse, has the body of a route horse but has made her two starts sprinting. Sitting second in her debut, she was all out to get up, and after beating the gate in her second start and leading much of the way, she was bulldozed late by a closer of unknown quality.
Juvenile Turf Sprint
Five Europeans, and Aidan O’Brien has three shots to win this race for the first time. True Love clearly leads the trio, and do not think that because she was considered for the Juvenile Fillies Turf over one mile that this five-furlong trip is too short for her. True Love has plenty of speed, and look what she did to a leading American hope, Lennilu, going five-eighths in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot.
True Love on the merits should have won the Group 1 Phoenix. She had beaten the filly who made all the running in that race, Power Blue, and clearly has more talent, but True Love, out of character, broke poorly that day and never could get on terms with the winner
She has lost two other races. In her debut, she broke sharply and contested the pace before Lady Iman burst between rivals and passed her. True Love, outfooted, came back on Lady Iman and quickly galloped out in front, and Lady Iman was the fastest early-season 2-year-old in Ireland. Who beat True Love in her second out? Gstaad, the colt who is favored in the Juvenile Turf, and after that race, they started riding True Love from behind, rather than from the front. She showed a huge turn of foot in her first such start, beating subsequent Group 1 winner Puerto Rico by five, though True Love had to work harder to get the best of Havana Anna in the Group 1 Cheveley Park.
Havana Anna improved from the time True Love beat her by more than two lengths in May to the Cheveley Park, where the margin was three-quarters of a length over a six-furlong trip that suits True Love better than Havana Anna. Had that race been at five furlongs – who knows the outcome. Havana Anna still was learning the ropes when beaten in her second race, and you can put down her other defeat, in France, to a very soft course. She has ample speed but has learned to harness it and likely offers better value than True Love.
Only in his last start did Brussels race over a distance as short as five furlongs – and this looks like his trip. In his second through fifth starts, Brussels a furlong from the finish looked like he could win before the wind went out of his sails. The second in the Group 1 Middle Park looks good on paper, but Wise Approach – a top-class 2-year-old – was going away from him, and Brussels barely held second. He has a lot of speed and was allowed to use it last out, when Bedford Falls, racing first time as a gelding and quite talented, just nipped him. Expect that speed to show again from post 1 on Friday.
Mission Central was bet like a good thing in his debut but flopped and was gelded before making his second start. He might be able to lead this race if that’s what they wanted. In several starts he has broken like a Quarter Horse, opening a lead of a couple lengths in a matter of strides. But they have been teaching this horse to ration his speed and rate, and he has learned those lessons. He put them to use hitting a peak less than two weeks ago at Ascot, where he settled and finished, and comfortably bested favored Words of Truth.
Aspect Island has come a long, long way since he went off at 100-1 in his debut. His speed has sharpened with racing, and he has improved all season, but even hitting his peak in the Cornwallis he had done his best with 50 yards to run and was fading at the wire when beaten three-quarters by Brussels.
Military Code seeks to follow in the hoofprints of Mischief Magic, who went last to first for Charlie Appleby and William Buick winning this race at Keeneland three years ago. Maybe Military Code has more to give, and his last race was his best, but there’s little to indicate he can weave through traffic and get up in time.
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