A horse intended for the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar has raced six times on the Del Mar grass course and never lost. That horse, just a 4-year-old, has won multiple Grade 1s, has an overall mark of 8 for 14 on turf, and since his trainer began racing him without blinkers four starts ago has three wins and an unlucky fourth.
Yet this same horse, Formidable Man, loses his regular jockey to another Breeders’ Cup Mile runner, Johannes, who has a ninth-place finish and a win from just two starts this year. Formidable Man’s odds for the Mile in the weekly Daily Racing Form Top 10 list are reasonably set at 15-1. That’s higher than the 12-1 on Program Trading, a horse who has lost his two starts since returning from a layoff nearly 15 months long.
What exactly is going on here?
Partly, it’s a speed figure thing. Formidable Man never has crossed into triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure territory. There’s also the pervasive notion that California turf divisions lag behind those on the East Coast, perhaps even the Midwest. Formidable Man in three races outside California has a second and a ninth at Churchill Downs and a 12th this past January at Gulfstream Park in the Pegasus World Cup Turf.
Those starts came while Formidable Man still raced in blinkers, which came off after he led and faded in the Pegasus.
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“Since we have taken the blinkers off of him second half of this year, it’s certainly seemed to help him settle,” trainer Michael McCarthy said.
In his lone blinker-less defeat, Formidable Man might have settled too much, dropping back to 10th in the Shoemaker Mile on May 26 at Santa Anita. Formidable Man finished fastest in that race, but fastest only netted him fourth. Subsequently freshened, he came back and decisively won two Del Mar turf stakes, the Eddie Read and the Del Mar Mile.
“It’s a Breeders’ Cup race, and everybody needs to bring their A game, but when he is on his A game, he is as good as any miler in the U.S.,” McCarthy said. “Whether he’s as good as any miler in Europe, that remains to be seen.”
After racing on Del Mar grass, Formidable Man never has walked back to his stall without first getting his picture taken. He won his debut there and has since landed five stakes. No doubt, Del Mar suits him, but McCarthy has endeavored to train Formidable Man to a peak for Del Mar races because owners William Warren and Suzanne Warren spend their summers nearby.
Surely, the Warrens will attend the races Nov. 1, when Formidable Man makes his first start piloted by John Velazquez. Umberto Rispoli, aboard for the last eight outings, opts for Johannes, third in the 2024 BC Mile.
Johannes, a troubled ninth in his lone previous 2025 start, needed to run in the City of Hope Mile on Sept. 27 at Santa Anita, a race he won under Rispoli. McCarthy skipped the City of Hope to bring Formidable Man fresh into the Mile, which will mark his first race since Aug. 30. Formidable Man, contrary to his official workout pattern, has breezed steadily, McCarthy said. His Oct. 4 drill didn’t make the work tab, and Formidable Man worked again Oct. 11, not, as the form says, on Oct. 10.
Under the radar or overmatched? Like the trainer said, that remains to be seen.
◗ On the European front: Field of Gold, who could wind up the Mile favorite, runs Saturday at Ascot in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Rosallion, another horse who’s been mentioned for the Mile, also starts there.
The Aidan O’Brien-trained Diego Velazquez, rather than coming to the Mile after a fifth as the favorite in the Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland, has been retired. Breeders’ Cup officials weren’t certain this week whether O’Brien had another horse for the race.
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