DEL MAR, Calif. – In the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar, Johannes finished a stout second. His trainer, Tim Yakteen, believes the 5-year-old comes into this year’s Mile every bit as good as last year.
A head behind him a year ago came Notable Speech, who closed from farther back than Johannes, a fine third in his North American debut. His trainer, Charlie Appleby, believes Notable Speech, a 4-year-old now, comes to this Mile a better horse than he was last year.
Appleby absolutely knows what it takes to win the Mile, having won three in a row before Notable Speech fell short.
“Last year, I thought he ran very well, but I was always coming in here thinking, ‘Has he got quite the experience?’ ” Appleby said. “When you’re a 3-year-old taking on hardened, battled-tested horses around here, it’s tough.”
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A two-horse race this most definitely is not. The $2 million Mile, a worldwide affair, lured 13 entrants. One Stripe won a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race in South Africa before coming to trainer Graham Motion in Maryland. Sahlan is a Group 1 winner shipped from France, while The Lion In Winter, whom Sahlan beat by a nose and a neck on Sept. 7 in the Prix du Moulin, comes from trainer Aidan O’Brien in Ireland.
Gran Oriente won a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race in Chile, and the improved mare Argine traveled from Japan. Jonquil, who easily beat Sahlan in May, and Qirat, marooned in post 13, train in England. Gas Me Up, who would need a tank of rocket fuel to win, shipped from Canada.
The other Americans are Formidable Man, 6 for 6 in Del Mar turf races, and Rhetorical and Program Trading, one-two in the Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland.
Neither Johannes nor Notable Speech sailed smoothly through this season. Notable Speech, with William Buick riding as always, began his campaign with four defeats in England and France before breaking through Sept. 13 in the Woodbine Mile. In two early season straight-course Group 1 miles, the Lockinge and the Queen Anne, Notable Speech loomed a furlong out and went flat. Appleby cut him back to six furlongs on July 12 in the July Cup, but Notable Speech finished just fifth as the favorite, though the race didn’t pan out as Appleby hoped.
“I felt we never gave the horse the best opportunity to do what we hoped he might at that trip. He did come out of the race in great order,” Appleby said. “We went to Deauville and learned he’s a horse you do want dropping in and giving a target. When you’re that type of horse and you need that type of ride, you need a lot of lady luck. As I said to William, when you ride this horse, you’re either going to be a hero or a villain.”
Not really Buick’s fault, but at Deauville in the Prix Jacques Le Marois, Notable Speech would have won with better luck. Slicing between several sets of horses while closing from well off the pace, he found just enough trouble to miss by a head. At least he was back on form, as the Woodbine race validated.
“I was keen to get him to Woodbine and remind him what it’s all about on those turns,” Appleby said.
Johannes reminded folks in the City of Hope Mile on Sept. 27 why he’d been North America’s top-rated middle-distance turf horse in 2024. Steadied at the half-mile pole when the horse in front of him slowed his pace, Johannes quickly recovered and swooped to a comfortable win in just his second start this year. His first, a terrible-trip ninth in the Fourstardave at Saratoga, didn’t reveal anything about where Johannes was at the time.
“We’re at the same spot as last year. We’ve got our level of fitness. We’ve got our level of health. He’s ready,” Yakteen said.
Rhetorical might be the leading American hope and has the speed to slip into a decent spot from post 11 under Irad Ortiz Jr. A winner in 5 of 6 starts, Rhetorical aced his graded-stakes debut in the Turf Mile. He broke on top but, a willing partner with Ortiz, slid into a perfect tracking trip from fourth. Rhetorical zipped to the lead with a quick turn of foot, and while the competition appeared to be gaining, Rhetorical galloped out far in front.
“His weapons are how tactical he is and, obviously, that electric turn of foot,” trainer Will Walden said. “If you could create a perfect turf miler, those would be the two main strengths.”
Walden worked Rhetorical just once between starts. His Oct. 23 dirt drill at Churchill Downs was a doozy.
“His breezes leading up to [Keeneland] were just like that. When he used to go in company, he’d throttle dirt horses,” Walden said.
Three-year-old Sahlan has done little wrong considering the particulars of his two worst races, a ninth in the French 2000 Guineas and a sixth in the Prix de Saint Patrick in June. Trainer Francis-Henri Graffard said Sahlan came out of the latter start sick, and that the Guineas, in which Sahlan fell too far behind a fast pace, was basically a “non-race.”
“He’s changing physically right now,” Graffard said. “He’s a horse who wants fast ground.”
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Jonquil might have won the French Guineas with a more focused finish, then struggled to regain that form through the summer. Shorter races didn’t work for him, but Jonquil bounced back toward his best winning the Group 2 Celebration Mile, and a wide draw compromised him when he finished fastest in the Turf Mile.
“He went back home and did two very good pieces of work, but he’s always impressive in his work,” said trainer Andrew Balding, who is not pleased with post position 10. “He’s just a horse who’s been unlucky with his draws.”
The Lion In Winter started his season a hope for the English Derby but finished 14th in that 1 1/2-mile race and came out of it looking like a miler, O’Brien said. He ran poorly in the Marois but followed his vastly improved third in the Moulin with a solid Group 1 second just two weeks ago at Ascot.
“He’s a straightforward horse, usually a quick breaker,” O’Brien said.
Qirat was a pacemaker for Field of Gold in the Grade 1 Sussex on July 30 but instead won at 150-1. The Sussex is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race, which immediately set trainer Ralph Beckett thinking about the BC Mile. Beckett said Qirat, who runs best on turning tracks, came out of a modest showing at York with a pulled muscle. At Longchamp last out, he failed to handle soft ground.
Formidable Man, already a good horse, hit another level when trainer Michael McCarthy stopped racing him in blinkers four starts ago.
“He’s a more relaxed horse, amenable to whatever the rider asks,” McCarthy said.
Program Trading, while second in the Turf Mile, prefers a longer distance. Trainer Chad Brown points to his strong run in his lone Del Mar start as a reason for hope and wants jockey Flavien Prat to give Program Trading a more aggressive ride than he got at Keeneland.
One Stripe was the best miler in South Africa, though he didn’t have a lot of run when badly impeded a furlong from the finish in his last start at home. His fifth in the Woodbine Mile came with a less than ideal trip.
Argine stepped up her game this year but would need a career-best effort to hit the board. Gran Oriente was 17-1 when he won his BC Challenge race, which came over 1 1/4 miles.
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