Brief research into the history of the term recency bias – the over-prioritizing of recent events at the expense of more distant ones – credits German psychologist Hermann Ebbinghaus for describing it in 1888.
Brief research also suggests nobody outside racing has even heard of the phrase, “If you didn’t go to the wedding, don’t go to the funeral.”
Both apply to the $250,000 Cherokee Mile, the featured race Sunday at Churchill Downs, closing day of the fall meet.
The 3-year-old Brunacini on Oct. 19 at Keeneland won the Grade 3 Perryville Stakes by a neck, beating Grade 1 winner Book’em Danno. He did so at odds of 28-1, and, to follow the dictates of the phrase, if you missed him last time, don’t bite Sunday at anything close to Churchill’s morning line, a mere 7-2.
Brunacini debuted in July at Ellis Park and won a maiden sprint with an 86 Beyer Speed Figure, following that with a game if fading fifth trying a two-turn 1 1/16 miles in a Churchill allowance. His Beyer in the Perryville, the recent race, shot up to a 99.
Because of narrative more than performance, Brunacini received even more publicity than a standard shock winner of a graded stakes at a major track. The Perryville easily marked the most important win for his young trainer Matthew Sims, and Brunacini, owned by his breeder, former trainer Emilie Fojan, is named for the late owner and breeder George Brunacini, who perished in a 2006 Lexington plane crash.
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Two weeks after the Perryville, Three Technique ran in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Del Mar. “Ran” might be too strong a verb. Three Technique raced in 11th position early, fell back to 12th, and never got closer than that – a dud.
Last race to last race, you’d want Brunacini, but would you rather take 7-2 on a thrice-started 3-year-old with only his most recent start supporting that price, or the morning line 12-1 on 7-year-old Three Technique?
A mere one start before the BC Dirt Mile – run over a two-turn configuration that doesn’t suit him – Three Technique won the Grade 3 Ack Ack, a Churchill one-turn dirt mile like the Cherokee. The Ack Ack hardly was an outlier. In Churchill one-turn miles, Three Technique has gone 9-3-2-3, including another stakes win. He also won the Grade 2 John Nerud over seven furlongs at Belmont Park.
Brunacini pulled a cozy outside stalking trip in the Perryville, but Sunday, facing older stakes horses for the first time, he breaks from the rail, will have to use his speed out of the gate, and should encounter serious pace pressure bearing down from the outside.
If all the pace shows, Call Me Fast, at least as much as Three Technique, holds appeal. Probably priced too high on the line at 15-1, Call Me Fast likes a one-turn mile more than the 1 1/8-mile route he most recently contested while facing high-level allowance foes at Keeneland. There, he nonetheless finished up in a robust 12.50 seconds for his final furlong, coming home second of 10.
Luis Saez, leading rider this meet, takes the call for trainer Joe Sharp.
Eleven were entered in the Cherokee Mile, Injunction, for reasons difficult to discern, is listed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite. While Injunction doesn’t feel like chalk, no one is going to be a short price here – though Brunacini, talent aside, because of his recent success might be shorter than he should.
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