Brad Cox stands a strong chance of winning the Clark Stakes on Friday at Churchill Downs – but with which horse?
Cox entered the duo of Hit Show, favored at 3-1 on the track’s morning line, and Most Wanted, second choice at 7-2 on the line.
Four-year-old Hit Show comes to the Grade 2, $600,000 Clark, contested over 1 1/8 miles on dirt, a known quantity, victorious in half his 14 starts. The three-stakes winning streak he carries into Friday’s contest includes a course-and-distance score about two months ago in the Lukas Classic.
Three-year-old Most Wanted comes to the Clark unbeaten in four outings, brimming with upside while facing older horses for the first time.
Either runner could help Cox erase the memory of last year’s Clark when 6-5 favorite First Mission took a nose loss to longshot Trademark.
Eight others were entered in the Clark and five of them never have won a graded stakes. That quintet includes Bolzy, Grand Aspen, Piroli, Cooke Creek, and Uno Mas Bourbon, none of whom hold obvious appeal, even at long prices. Grand Aspen and Cooke Creek do hold the key to the Clark pace, both horses forward-running types, as has been Most Wanted. The other three – Crupi, the race’s lone shipper, Red Route One, and Rattle N Roll – all are pace-dependent one-run closers.
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Crupi required eight starts just to win a maiden race, though two of his early defeats came in graded stakes competition. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Crupi turned a corner last winter, finishing third in the Pegasus World Cup before taking a sizeable step back in the Dubai World Cup. He built up to another peak in August, closing for second in Arthur’s Ride’s powerhouse Whitney, then ran flat in his most recent start, the Woodward on Sept. 28.
If it’s somewhat difficult getting a line on Crupi, one at least knows he needs pace in front of him, as do Rattle N Roll and Red Route One. Rattle N Roll didn’t race for a year, returned with a solid third in Hit Show’s Lukas Classic, and subsequently failed to draw into the Breeders’ Cup Classic, instead winding up at Churchill, where he’s a three-time winner from eight starts. Rattle N Roll stands to improve second after the layoff, perhaps not enough to win.
Four-year-old Red Route One never has finished better than a distant third at the Grade 1 level, yet has racked up more than $1.8 million in earnings. He has two rich victories this year, the New Orleans Classic in March and the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker on July 6, Red Route One’s most recent start. The key to this horse: 1 1/8 miles, where he’s won four of seven.
“The distance suits him, and the circumstances, too. On paper there’s speed,” said trainer Steve Asmussen.
Hit Show finished seventh as the 9-5 Cornhusker favorite, his lone subpar run during 2024. An average work horse, according to Cox, Hit Show is a steady winner who does not make things easy: He was home by half-length in West Virginia Governor’s, a neck in the Lukas Classic, and three-quarters of a length last month in the Fayette at Keeneland.
“When he hits the lead, he can idle a little bit. You can see that watching the film,” Cox said. “It can drive you a little crazy, but he’s a good colt who gets good numbers.”
Gary and Mary West sold Hit Show to Wathnan Racing over the summer but still own their homebred Most Wanted, a half-brother to top-class Life Is Good. Most Wanted debuted this past June at Churchill and has improved every start, peaking last out with a one-length win in the Oklahoma Derby.
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Like Hit Show, Most Wanted appeared to idle in midstretch that night, but after being headed at the eighth pole, he buckled down and won comfortably while making his two-turn debut.
“I think he’s going to get better with age. I think there’s more there. He’s always been a good work horse, but he’s taken a step forward the last few works here,” Cox said. “We have to find out where we are with him. He could be a Grade 1 horse at some point.”
Most Wanted has speed but rates kindly in daily training, Cox said. That means he can take a sit just behind the two other pace players – and lead home the Cox pair.
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