LEXINGTON, Ky. – Sprints can often turn into wide-open affairs in the stretch with close finishes, and the Grade 2, $400,000 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland may be no exception.
A well-matched field of seven fillies and mares going six furlongs with an automatic berth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at Del Mar on the line is made up of Grade 1 winner and multimillionaire Vahva, defending TCA Stakes winner and millionaire Zeitlos, graded stakes-winning millionaire Taxed, graded stakes winners Halina’s Forte and Praying, and stakes winners Long Neck Paula and Vodka With a Twist.
Vahva is the morning-line favorite on the strength of her overall résumé, with five graded stakes wins and more than $2 million in earnings, and her record at Keeneland, where she is based with Cherie DeVaux. Vahva won the Grade 2 Raven Run in the fall of 2023 at Keeneland and, off her subsequent winter break, was a strong second in the Grade 1 Madison the following spring, when she likely needed the race. Following the Madison, she scored her biggest win in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff at Churchill Downs in May 2024.
However, all of those efforts were at seven furlongs, the distance of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. Vahva has made just one start at six furlongs, and while her fifth-place finish in her career debut in 2022 can likely be forgiven, her lack of experience at this sharper distance is a question mark. She has made three starts at 6 1/2 furlongs, with a win, a second, and a third.
Most recently Vahva was third as the heavy favorite in the Misty Bennett Pink Ribbon at Charles Town. That was against lesser competition, although winner Mystic Lake is in the midst of a four-race win streak.
Zeitlos has more experience at this distance. The 2024 TCA, her signature graded triumph, highlights her five career stakes scores and is one of her seven wins from 10 starts at six furlongs. She won the Skipat at Pimlico and finished third to Vahva in the Grade 2 Chicago at Churchill Downs earlier this year. She then made her two most recent starts for Steve Asmussen in stakes on turf – a surface where she been successful but on which she is not at the same level. She is a serious threat in her move back to dirt.
Both Vahva and Zeitlos are closers who will need pace up front to set them up. They should get it. Long Neck Paula is well drawn in post 2 to flash her customary speed, and Praying, coming off a win in the Grade 3 Prioress at this distance, will also want to be forwardly placed. Halina’s Forte and Vodka With a Twist are not need-the-lead types, but they should keep the leaders honest.
Long Neck Paula is based at Keeneland with Wesley Ward and has a strong record at her home track. In two stakes efforts against colts here, she won the Bowman Mill last fall and was second in the off-the-turf Palisades this spring. In the Prioress at Saratoga, she had a poor break, rushed up, and tired late.
Halina’s Forte has never missed the board at six furlongs and scored in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss at this distance two back. That race was the local prep for the Ballerina at Saratoga, but she was fifth with a troubled trip in that Grade 1.
Taxed has switched between sprints and two-turn races during her career. She was second, beaten less than a length, in the Grade 1 La Troienne against a solid field of route runners earlier this year. However, she has also won 2 of 3 outings at six furlongs.
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