It takes nearly no time identifying Dragoon Guard as a plausible winner of the $250,000 Cherokee Mile, featured race at Churchill Downs on Sunday – Churchill’s last race day until Derby Week 2026.
The trickier task: deciding what to do with him.
The morning line lists Dragoon Guard as the 2-1 favorite in the 11-runner Cherokee Mile, which is open to older horses and contested around one turn. That’s not an impossible number, but the 4-year-old colt easily could go off considerably lower.
Dragoon Guard has been favored in seven of his 10 starts, odds-on in five of those races. He drops in class from the Grade 3 Fayette Stakes last month at Keeneland and, probably just as important, cuts back in trip from a two-turn, 1 1/8-mile contest.
None of this is rocket science. But dragging Dragoon Guard’s value down into a potentially unplayable zone are two names: Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr.
Even in an era when “dumb money” has been plumbed from the betting pools, when names carry less currency than several years ago, it’s nearly certain you won’t get a fair price on a horse trained by Cox and ridden by his go-to rider, which Ortiz in the last few months has most certainly become.
Over the last year, Cox started 175 horses in dirt stakes. Eighty have gone off favored, and even that understates the percentage of favorites since Cox often has multiple runners in the same race. Those Cox favorites have won at a 43 percent clip, which is strong. They have, however, yielded a flat-bet $1.80 return on investment, not terrible, but obviously underwater.
If Dragoon Guard holds an edge on his rivals, it probably won’t match his price. That said, while he comes off the worst finish of his career – a seventh in the Fayette – Dragoon Guard got hooked into a fast pace facing stronger competition than he meets Sunday while going a nine-furlong distance probably beyond his best. Cox liked Dragoon Guard in the Fayette – which he won with Hit Show – and came away disappointed.
“He ran in the one-turn mile coming off the layoff this year,” Cox said. “Hopefully he can work out a trip from that outside draw.”
Post 11 won’t get Dragoon Guard beat. He possesses ample speed to cross over and establish position.
The morning-line lists Scotland as the 3-1 second choice, but who’s lining up to bet this horse? Scotland won the 2024 Cherokee Mile but did so by turning in a peak performance with aid from a favorable pace setup. Three starts ago, Scotland raced competitively in the Grade 1 Forego, finishing second to Book’em Danno, who won despite running well below his top form. Scotland in two starts since has turned in flat performances, a 5-year-old bringing no upside to his 18th outing.
:: Subscribe to the DRF Post Time Email Newsletter: Get the news you need to play today's races!
Multitask, listed at 8-1 on the line, does have upside while making just his fifth start on dirt. Will Take It beat Dragoon Guard in May and won the one-turn-mile Hanshin in June but completely lost his form in two subsequent starts.
Moonlight presents the clear alternative, though probably at something more like 3-1 than his listed 5-1 odds. Moonlight, also going a distance farther than ideal, finished fifth in the Fayette, albeit doing none of the front-end dirty work Dragoon Guard performed. In May, he scored a breakout Churchill victory in a one-turn mile. Moonlight resides in the barn of Chris Block, a successful trainer whose name alone won’t destroy your value.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.