Unbeaten and unchallenged Earhart ventures away from Woodbine for the first time for her stakes debut in Saturday night’s $125,000 Likely Exchange Stakes for fillies and mares going one mile on the Tapeta at Turfway Park.
Earhart is the 5-2 morning-line favorite over local stakes winner Everland, at 3-1, for the Likely Exchange, which now becomes part of a big late pick five sequence. After Turfway was forced to scrap plans to race on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday due to winter weather, there will be a $180,036 carryover into the late pick five on Saturday’s card. The sequence covers races five through nine, with the Likely Exchange as the second leg.
Earhart, trained by Josie Carroll for LNJ Foxwoods, has made both her starts going seven furlongs on Woodbine’s synthetic main track. She debuted Nov. 9, and won by 6 3/4 lengths under a hand ride, besting a next-out winner while earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 86. She upped that to 96 – far the best in this field – while dominating an allowance/optional-claiming race by 11 lengths, eased up, on Dec. 7.
Earhart will now add an extra furlong while going around two turns, but a mile – and more – should be well within her scope. The filly is by French sire Siyouni, whose progeny include major route winners Sottsass, St Mark’s Basilica, Laurens, Paddington, and others. Her dam Aviatress also won at one mile.
Earhart has breezed three times on Turfway’s Tapeta in preparation for her stakes debut, including two recent strong five-furlong works. She breaks from post 2 under Luis Contreras, and her speed should keep her out of traffic trouble if she breaks alertly in what will be a full field of 12.
Everland will hope for someone to be able to stay with Earhart early to set up her late run, as she looks to be getting back on track now that the season is underway at her favorite course. The filly won three times at Turfway in the 2023-24 season, including the Bourbonette Oaks. She proceeded to contest graded stakes competition on both dirt and turf through the year for Eric Foster. Getting back to Turfway’s Tapeta, the filly was a good second to multiple stakes winner Dana’s Beauty in the My Charmer Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Dec. 14.
She’s Fancy is a very lightly raced 5-year-old who appears to have finally gotten on track. She made one start in 2022 for Graham Motion before being away from the races for more than two years. She has been steadily on the work tab since late August in this latest comeback for Chris Davis, and scored a sharp six-furlong maiden win on Dec. 12 at Turfway with an 88 Beyer. Coming off a bullet work, the mare’s pedigree suggests she could handle more distance. She’s a daughter of the versatile classic sire Uncle Mo and is out of the Tapit mare Tapitry, graded stakes-placed at 1 1/16 miles on turf.
The Likely Exchange is preceded by the kickoff leg to the sequence, an $18,500 maiden claiming race. It is followed by an $86,000 allowance/optional-claiming sprint, an $81,000 allowance at one mile, and a $31,900 claiming race.
The allowance/optional-claiming sprint for older horses has a strong pair from trainer Larry Rivelli in Nobals and One Timer. Nobals, who has two wins and a second from three prior starts at Turfway, is best known for winning the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. However, he was off the board in his first three starts of 2024 following that. He got back on track by winning the Grade 2 Kennedy Road on Nov. 16 at Woodbine; however, after that, a misadventure followed in which he shipped to Hong Kong to race, but became ill after arriving, forcing him to scratch. Returning to the U.S., he has a strong recent work at Turfway.
Graded stakes-winning stablemate One Timer has not won since August of 2023, but has several stakes placings since then. The most recent of those came when he was a solid third in the Holiday Cheer on Dec. 14 at Turfway, his first start following a freshening of a little more than two months.
With the Rivelli pair likely drawing the bulk of the attention, some others in the field with local affinity or with stakes seasoning may offer some value. Those include B D Valeski, coming off a good Turfway allowance win for Greg Foley, defeating course-loving Epic Ride by three-quarters of a length.
An overflow field in the one-mile allowance appears well-matched, and may pose one of the biggest puzzles of the sequence, with spreading advised. The lukewarm morning-line favorite Safe Trip Home is one of the few in this field with a win both at Turfway and at a mile – but that happened more than two years ago, and the lightly-raced 5-year-old is making his second start off a layoff of more than a year. Second choice Hilarious Affair is unplaced in three starts at Turfway, and is untried at a mile.
Transcendental and Aleman were recently second and third, respectively, in a one-mile Turfway allowance to Mercante, who looks upwardly-mobile off a layoff of his own. The latter was entered on Friday’s cancelled card.
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