The winner of the $12 million Dubai World Cup, run this past April 5, races Saturday at Keeneland. The morning line lists him at 6-1, almost twice the price of a stablemate who has never won above the Grade 3 level, which says a lot about this year’s World Cup and something, too, about the Fayette Stakes.
The Grade 3, $350,000 Fayette, for older horses at 1 1/8 miles on dirt, lured a field both long and strong, at least for the class level. Hit Show, surprise hero of the Dubai World Cup as well as winner of the 2024 Fayette, drew the far outside 11 post. The morning line has him as fourth choice. Florent Geroux, who has ridden Hit Show in most of his races and won on him in Dubai, winds up on trainer Brad Cox’s second entrant, Dragoon Guard. Irad Ortiz Jr., joined at the hip with Cox this meet, takes the mount on Hit Show.
Dilger and Prince of Power will supply some pace, but not much more than that, especially in Prince of Power’s case. Best Actor has no obvious path to victory. But at least a trace of a case could be made for the six others not trained by Cox, who, from the rail out, are Lambeth, Honor Marie, Bracket Buster, Moonlight, Rattle N Roll, and Gosger.
The Fayette mixes a couple of capable 3-year-olds, Gosger and Bracket Buster, with an eclectic assortment of older horses.
Hit Show, thanks to his Dubai surprise, is the richest of them, though not the sharpest. The Japanese horse Forever Young held overwhelming favoritism in the Dubai World Cup but failed to come close to his best, finishing third as Hit Show beat the moderately talented American horse Mixto capturing one of the weaker World Cups. A well-beaten fifth in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster in his first start post-Dubai, Hit Show won his second West Virginia Governor’s Cup in August, but on Sept. 27 checked in a tame fourth, 6 1/2 lengths behind victorious Mystik Dan, in the Lukas Classic.
“We need him to get back to the way he ran in Dubai,” said Cox. Asked if the rigors of the Dubai trip itself had lowered Hit Show’s baseline, Cox demurred. “I’m going to say no, it didn’t, because he’s trained so well. His last run he was just a little flat down the lane. Hoping he’d finish a little better than he did the last sixteenth of a mile.”
Dragoon Guard is, however, a sharp 4-year-old. A last-start Churchill Downs allowance blowout, just his third race of the year, gave Dragoon Guard five wins from nine outings to go with three seconds. His lone third-place finish came in Dragoon Guard’s only start at 1 1/8 miles, the 2024 Pennsylvania Derby. Cox blames the defeat on a poor trip. His position has merit. But the nine furlongs is just one hurdle. Dragoon Guard likes to race forwardly. So do other Fayette entrants.
“There’s some speed in there. I think he can sit off it if he needs to,” Cox said. “He’s definitely trained the part. I think he’s that kind of horse.”
This year’s tough-trip Pennsylvania Derby horse: Gosger. Drawn in post 10 Saturday and Luis Saez sticking with him, Gosger stumbled leaving the gate and half ran on his knees the first 20 yards of the Pennsylvania Derby, then got caught four wide with no cover the first turn, three wide with no cover the second. His distant sixth can be excused. In April, Gosger won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, then finished a close second in the Preakness, but might have hit his peak with a second-place finish in the Haskell Invitational.
Bracket Buster set the pace and finished second in the Lexington and was fourth behind Gosger in the Haskell, but he nabbed a second – albeit a distant one behind Sovereignty – in the Travers and returned with a smart score Sept. 28 in the Oklahoma Derby. Drawn inside, Bracket Buster looms another pace factor.
Lambeth, who has been in good form all year, and Honor Marie, who has not, both have done their best work over longer distances. But 1 1/8 miles sits right in Rattle N Roll’s wheelhouse, and at 12-1 on the line, he’s headed toward overlay status. Winner of the 2023 Ben Ali going 1 3/16 miles at Keeneland, Rattle N Roll made two winter starts in Saudi Arabia and was a flat eighth in the Dubai World Cup. He made no impact in the Lukas Classic, but trainer Kenny McPeek had given the 6-year-old very little serious work going into his first start in nearly six months. Rattle N Roll has come back with at least one good-looking breeze and could take a serious step forward.
And don’t sleep on Moonlight. Moonlight, still with room to improve at 4, raced against a strong inside speed bias finishing fifth July 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, a race sandwiched between a strong one-turn mile allowance win in May, and an even stronger one around two turns Sept. 28.
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