A discreet set of events can produce divergent interpretations. Take the Inside Information Stakes on Jan. 25 at Gulfstream Park.
In that Grade 2 contest over seven furlongs, Mystic Lake showed speed and led narrowly during the early stages over Olivia Darling. After putting away her pace rival, Mystic Lake fought back gamely after losing the lead to a midstretch surge from Jody’s Pride, and having seen off that rival, she barely held clear a final outside move from the filly Emery.
From this perspective, Mystic Lake was a game, worthy winner of the Inside Information and can beat Emery again Tuesday at Keeneland in the Grade 1, $650,000 Madison Stakes.
The Emery camp – Stonestreet Stable and trainer Brad Cox – would take a different point of view.
Emery, the even-money Inside Information favorite, stalked the pace while racing several paths off the rail and appeared to be getting a favorable trip – until she inexplicably came off the bridle and lost ground at about the quarter pole. Emery had not given up. She found stride again at the furlong grounds, gained steadily on the leaders, passed Jody’s Pride, and failed by a couple of inches to catch Mystic Lake.
“It was a little bit of an odd trip,” Cox said. “One jump past the wire and she’s in front.”
Both 4-year-old fillies enter the Madison, another seven-furlong race, fresh and rested since the Inside Information.
“It looks like a coin flip between the both of them,” said Saffie Joseph Jr., who trains Mystic Lake.
Six others oppose the Inside Information pair.
Positano Sunset’s body of work sits a cut below the top contenders, but she does exit a smart March 8 Tampa Bay Downs win while making her first start since November and has gone 1-2-0 from three Keeneland starts.
My Mane Squeeze has won six of her 13 starts and earned more than $1 million, but she’s lost to both Emery and Mystic Lake while never beating them and races for the first time since November.
The morning line lists Scylla, fourth last out in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, as the 8-5 favorite, and Bill Mott, who trains the homebred mare for Juddmonte Farms, does excellent work with layoff runners in graded stakes races.
Dazzling Move, also trained by Joseph, and Harbor Springs merit long prices, while Justique rates a win chance at a fair price. She’s won two stakes from two starts since being moved into the stable of trainer Cherie DeVaux, and her rail-skimming rally to capture the Feb. 23 Carousel at Oaklawn served as much as anything as a bridge to the Madison. DeVaux lauded a recent in-company Keeneland work with crack sprinter Vahva.
“She’s really sitting on go. I’m excited about the seven furlongs with her,” DeVaux said.
Cox also speaks glowingly about Emery’s training, and Emery in her lone Keeneland start landed the Raven Run, an age- and sex-restricted seven-furlong Grade 2 last October. Luan Machado, who replaces injured jockey Tyler Gaffalione, must work out a trip from an inside draw in a race lacking real speed.
Mystic Lake probably can control the tempo, but she need not rush to the lead under Irad Ortiz Jr. breaking from the far outside post.
“Seven furlongs is really good for her,” Joseph said. “She stays it well and she’s drawn well.”
Mystic Lake barely managed to stay in front of Emery 10 weeks ago at Gulfstream. The result remains open to interpretation. Additional information comes Tuesday at Keeneland.
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