Entries at Fair Grounds during December struggled mightily – until they didn’t. Cards this week suddenly filled at a far stronger pace than the first three weeks of the month, and the $100,000 Woodchopper Stakes, co-featured Saturday with the $100,000 Pago Hop, went off the charts.
Both races, turf routes, are restricted to 3-year-olds, the Pago Hop open only to fillies. With the temporary rail set at nine feet, the Fair Grounds starting gate can accommodate 14 runners in the Woodchopper and, barring scratches, the stalls will be full.
Sixteen were entered and one of the two also-eligibles, Record Time and Lambeth, will have an opportunity to run. Trainer Cherie DeVaux said Mc Vay, who is in the field’s main body, won’t race unless the Woodchopper is rained onto dirt, not an impossibility given the local forecast.
Mc Vay would be making his first start outside California and his first for DeVaux, who delivered a very optimistic report on the colt’s training. Luis Saez is named to ride Mc Vay but isn’t expected at Fair Grounds on Saturday, with Jose Ortiz likely to pick up the mount should conditions necessitate a surface switch.
On turf, Ortiz rides Evade, who could wind up narrowly favored over Lagynos as the two meet for the third time since October. In the Bryan Station at Keeneland, Lagynos finished fifth, three-quarters of a length behind fourth-place Evade, but Lagynos, weaving through traffic in the homestretch, ran the better race that day. Roles reversed in the Commonwealth Turf last month at Churchill Downs, where Lagynos, getting a perfect trip under Flavien Prat, won for the first time in 2024 while making his 10th start of the year.
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Evade checked in second in the Commonwealth, beaten because he had a much more demanding trip than Lagynos, albeit partially of his own making. A French import by the hot sire Wootton Bassett, Evade showed flashes of top-level ability while never racing beyond seven furlongs overseas. He debuted in America, trained by Mike Maker, racing 6 1/2 furlongs at Kentucky Downs, where Evade finished a solid fourth of a dozen in the Grade 1 Franklin-Simpson Stakes.
European training focuses on teaching young horses to switch off during the early and middle stages of a race, but Evade has struggled in that regard, pulling too hard at Keeneland and again at Churchill. In the Commonwealth, Evade got stuck three wide on the first turn and four wide on the second, no cover either turn, yet still gained on Lagynos through the final 50 yards. Fair trip to fair trip, Evade should beat Lagynos on Saturday, especially if he’ll settle better for new jockey Ortiz.
Higgins Boat, one of two entrants along with Rock’n a Halo trained by Tom Amoss, comfortably defeated older second-level allowance foes on the Fair Grounds turf last month. Tough Little Nut scored a similarly sharp victory, though at the first allowance level. Neither can beat the two out of the Commonwealth without improvement Saturday – and a healthy dose of luck in an overflowing field.
Pago Hop
The Pago Hop, the Woodchopper’s sister race, lured 10 entrants, a competitive race with talented participants, though not as deep and strong as the Woodchopper.
Favoritism figures to fall toward Way to Be Marie, listed as the tepid 3-1 chalk over 7-2 Buchu, and preferred by a wide margin over Buchu as a Pago Hop win candidate.
Way to Be Marie is one of a handful of horses wintering in New Orleans for trainer Rob Atras, as she did during a productive 2023-24 meet in New Orleans. Her best performance among three last-meet races came on March 23, when Way to Be Marie posted a 6 1/4-length first-level allowance score, albeit after leading on a slow pace.
That form carried to Kentucky, where Way to Be Marie nearly overcame a wide trip in the Grade 2 Edgewood at Churchill, nailed just before the wire by the Chad Brown-trained Dynamic Pricing. Her decent third Nov. 8 in the Pebbles at Aqueduct, her first start since June, should have Way to Be Marie ready to peak again.
As for Buchu, her win in April in the Appalachian at Keeneland signaled the filly had trained on at age 3 after hinting at Grade 1 potential as a 2-year-old. The signal led to a dead-end: Buchu’s form has gone entirely flat in her six starts since the Appalachian.
Austere holds greater appeal, though at a price likely lower than her 6-1 morning line. Trainer Brendan Walsh harbored high hopes for Austere after she won a rich Kentucky Downs stakes in September 2023 by open lengths, but Austere didn’t improve much, if at all, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and showed no spark in two starts this past spring.
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Away from the races since April, Austere looked back on track beating older second-level allowance foes Nov. 23 at Fair Grounds, the turn of foot that lifted her from sixth to first between the quarter and eighth poles at least as noteworthy as her 2 1/4-length margin of victory.
Stylish Sue held her own with salty older rivals in Kentucky allowance competition this fall and merits win consideration. Wild Bout Hilary has roughly zero chance on turf but turns into a key contender should the Pago Hop wind up on dirt.
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