The flood of winning favorites gradually slowed during opening week at Los Alamitos, but another wave of chalk is expected when the second week of the two-week daytime meet begins Friday.
Favorites won 7 of 8 on opening day, Sept. 12, and 13 of 26 during opening week. The 50 percent win rate is higher than the historical 40 percent win rate of favorites at the all-dirt Los Alamitos September meet, while field size opening week expanded to a healthy average of 7.85 horses per race.
Week 2 begins with nine claiming-caliber races, including short-priced starters deep in the card. Case Hit is likely to start favored in race 7, a California-bred allowance at 5 1/2 furlongs, while Bronko Nagurski looks formidable in race 9, a starter allowance at the same distance for horses that raced for a $6,250 claiming price or less in 2024-25.
Race 7 favorite Case Hit switches surfaces after a come-from-behind turf sprint win at Del Mar. California-bred allowance winners retain California-bred allowance eligibility when they switch surfaces, and surface is not an issue for Case Hit, who’s trained by Peter Miller.
Case Hit began his career in summer 2024 with a front-running maiden dirt win at Del Mar, followed by a runner-up finish in a dirt stakes for California-bred 2-year-olds. Case Hit was then sidelined for nearly a year, and when he returned this summer at Del Mar, he did so as a turf horse.
Case Hit finished second in a pair of California-bred turf sprints, followed by a decisive victory in which he employed an off-the-pace style. There, he rallied from next to last and won going away. Based on his finishing rally at five furlongs, an additional half-furlong Friday is a non-issue.
Kazushi Kimura, who has 997 career wins, rides Case Hit. The gelding’s versatility allows him to set or press the pace. If the race unfolds as expected, Case Hit figures to be forwardly placed along with Last Call Zondlo. The recent Beyer Speed Figures by Case Hit, in the mid-80s, are the highest recent figures in the field.
The challenge for Case Hit is to hold form through an ambitious campaign. He raced three times this summer at Del Mar and wheels back Friday only two weeks after his latest win. Case Hit, a Frosted gelding owned by Gary Barber, Darryn Barber, and Altamira Racing, has finished first or second in all five of his starts.
Last Call Zondlo won a highly rated claiming race last out. Binging finished third in a California-bred allowance, and late-running comebacker Galland de Besos returns from a layoff of nearly one year. If the race unfolds as expected, Case Hit should win with an up-front trip.
Race 9 favorite Bronko Nagurski, unplaced last out in a California-bred allowance, returns to the same level at which he won twice in the spring, including a win over the Los Alamitos track. Bronko Nagurski, trained by Jeff Mullins and ridden by Tyler Baze, enters the Friday finale as the most probable winner on the card. His main rivals include Howbeit, Slew’s Joy, and Distant Fleet.