Breeding sheds open this week in North America – and, taking in the specifics of the current marketplace, the competition to make a stallion successful is as fierce as a prolonged duel leading to a multi-horse photo finish on the racetrack.
Some major stud farms in Kentucky have adjusted the initially announced fees for stallions to better compete. It’s an effort to secure a quality chunk of a dwindling broodmare population to stallions at crucial points of their careers, thereby setting them up for success on the racetrack, which turns the wheel back to attract more mares.
A shrinking foal crop, and changing stallion and broodmare populations, have been prevailing trends for many years – and were borne out again in the latest statistics released by The Jockey Club last fall. In early October, The Jockey Club projected a North American registered Thoroughbred foal crop of 17,300 arriving in 2025. That represents 700 fewer foals than the 2024 foal crop estimate of 18,000. Meanwhile, in its Report of Mares Bred, The Jockey Club reported that 771 stallions covered 25,301 mares in North America during the 2024 season. Both those populations have contracted over the last decade. The Jockey Club’s statistics show that in 2014, 1,488 stallions covered 34,121 mares. Many breeders have cited the rising cost of raising foals, plus uncertain future racing climates in some states, as a reason to breed fewer mares in recent years. Mares purchased by international entities and shipped out of the United States to breed are also a factor.
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While the population has contracted, a higher percentage of mares are, meanwhile, being bred to stallions with the massive books of this era. In 2014, just three stallions covered book sizes of 200 or more, picking up 609 mares between them. In 2024, 10 stallions covered books of 200 or more, breeding 2,210 mares among them.
The market trends are to go to proven stallions, providing a higher chance of success in the sale ring and on the racetrack; or to go to first-year stallions, who provide flash in the marketplace, and give a chance of getting in on the ground floor with the industry’s next star. Finding themselves lost in the shuffle and fighting to keep their book sizes up are stallions in between those groups – those in their second, third, or fourth years at stud, whose progeny have not yet proven themselves on the track. For example, the top 10 books in the 2024 Report of Mares Bred included four stallions who would finish among the top 10 general sires on the season – Practical Joke (Coolmore’s Ashford Stud, 277 mares), Justify (Ashford, 263), Uncle Mo (Ashford, 202), and Gun Runner (Three Chimneys Farm, 200). Another four spots on the list were taken by first-year stallions Gunite (Ashford, 256), Elite Power (Juddmonte, 203), Pappacap (Walmac Farm, 200), and Taiba (Spendthrift Farm, 200). The outliers were second-year stallion Golden Pal (Ashford, 209), and fourth-year stallion Vekoma (Spendthrift, 200). Stallions in the top 10 on the 2023 Report of Mares Bred who, with smaller books, dropped off that list in 2024 were Epicenter (Ashford), Jack Christopher (Ashford), Olympiad (Gainesway Farm), Charlatan (Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm), and Cyberknife (Spendthrift). Charlatan stood his third year in 2024, while the rest were second-year stallions.
“Breeders have the final say,” Tom Ryan of SF Bloodstock said on social media. “Stud farms do not hold clients hostage to use their popular stallions. It’s human nature; everyone wants the attractive, trendy stallion. Stud farms operate based on demand, not coercion.”
The Jockey Club attempted to put a cap on the larger books – and thus, perhaps, spread out the dwindling mare population – by announcing in May of 2020 that colts born that year or later would be limited to breeding 140 mares per year in North America. That cap, which would likely have begun to affect a number of stallions retiring for the 2024 or 2025 seasons, was later opposed by three major stallion farms – Spendthrift, Three Chimneys, and Coolmore – that challenged the rule with a lawsuit. In February of 2022, The Jockey Club announced it would rescind the mare cap rule.
And thus, the stage is set for the competition of the 2025 breeding season. Six-time reigning leading sire Into Mischief, who stands at Spendthrift, Gun Runner, and Justify filled out the top three slots on the North American general sire list for 2024, and thus have earned the right to share the most expensive stud fee in the country, each standing for an advertised fee of $250,000. They lead a dozen Kentucky stallions with advertised six-figure fees. After that, however, there is plenty of room for negotiation. The publicly advertised stud fees for stallions, typically released with roster and retirement announcements in October and November, are the starting point, as stud farms may then reduce those fees or offer other incentives to attract more mares, or mares of a particular quality, into a stallion’s book.
Breeder Carrie Brogden of Machmer Hall, who said Kentucky is in the midst of an “unprecedented mare shortage,” said on her social media channels that she has encountered many stud farms seeking deals for the 2025 season.
“We are getting bonus seasons to use with every single share and breeding right we own practically,” Brogden said. “The shrinking numbers have been happening for decades, but all of a sudden, there is this tipping point of too many stallions with 100-plus books and not enough mares to breed them to. Something has changed this year. . . . I am being besieged by farms, every farm needs mares to their stallions. Everyone says their numbers are way down.”
While much of this negotiating happens behind the scenes, some major Kentucky farms have made adjustments to publicly advertised fees for some of their stallions at crucial points in their careers.
Spendthrift Farm made its adjustments in the most public fashion. On Jan. 16, in an open letter to breeders, Spendthrift owner Eric Gustavson announced that fees on six of the farm’s 29 stallions would be cut, by as much as half, from their fees initially announced in mid-October.
“We understand the current challenges posted by rising production costs and the significant impact they have on your breeding operations,” Gustavson said. “As we approach the breeding season, we recognize the importance of doing more to help breeders in navigating today’s market. . . . We remain steadfast in our mission to be ‘the Breeders’ Farm,’ delivering the best value and opportunities in the breeding industry.”
The stallions with their fees publicly reduced are Authentic (entering his fifth year at stud), from $25,000 to $15,000; Bolt d’Oro (seventh year), from $30,000 to $15,000; Cyberknife (third year), from $20,000 to $15,000; Jackie’s Warrior (third year), from $35,000 to $25,000; Mo Donegal (third year), from $10,000 to $5,000; and Vino Rosso (sixth year), from $12,500 to $7,500. Breeders who had signed contracts prior to the adjustment had their terms changed to reflect the new prices.
Gainesway Farm is introducing four new stallions for 2025, including Tapit Trice, whose fee was announced at $20,000 in early November upon his retirement. Entering the breeding season, his fee has been adjusted down to $12,500. Tapit Trice is by Gainsway’s kingpin Tapit, who stands for $185,000. The farm added two sons of the stallion to its 2025 roster, with Tapit Trice, co-campaigned by Mandy Pope’s Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway, joined by Pope’s homebred Charge It, also standing at $12,500.
“The stallion farms have finally entered the conversation about working with the breeders in terms of mitigating what have been skyrocketing stud fees,” breeder Harris Auerbach said on social media. “What I mean by this is that in the last five years or so, stud fees have gone up disproportionately to the expenses breeders face to bring horses to market and the races. I’m not arguing that the Into Mischiefs and Gun Runners of the world don’t deserve their high fees, but rather the first-crop stallion market has gotten to be a challenge, along with the market for early-success stallions. That dynamic has destroyed the market for second-crop sires and made the always challenging bubble years [crops 3 and 4] even more difficult to navigate. . . . Stallion farms [most notably Spendthrift, but including several others] have adjusted their fees . . . on some of their less-popular stallions, including young second-croppers and established sires. That’s a great start and good incentive for breeders but it will only work if some first-crop fees fall more into line where they really should be moving forward.”
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