HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – Strategic Risk will return to the scene of his finest hour, a one-sided maiden victory in his career debut in early June, when taking on 10 other Florida-sired 2-year-olds in Saturday’s $150,000 Affirmed Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The seven-furlong Affirmed is the middle leg of the open division of the Florida Sire Series and shares top billing on an outstanding card with its filly counterpart, the $150,000 Susan’s Girl.
Trained by Mark Casse, Strategic Risk ran to his 4-5 backing when leading at every call en route to an impressive 8 1/4-length victory launching his career here. The performance gave his connections enough confidence to try Strategic Risk against graded stakes competition in his next two starts. But after a couple of disappointing efforts in the Sanford and With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga, Casse backed off on Strategic Risk and pointed him to an easier spot against restricted company in the Affirmed.
“The way he broke his maiden, so impressively, we thought he was going to be a really nice horse, but he just did not run to expectations at Saratoga,” Casse said. “So we went him home, gave him a little break, started him back, and he breezed well enough the other day [in Ocala] to put him in this race and take a look.”
And when Casse looked at the prospective lineup for the Affirmed, he liked what he saw.
“It’s really not a tough spot, the race came up basically like a one-other-than, although I wish he hadn’t drawn the one hole,” Casse said. “From there, it’s all about the break, and if he breaks well he’s probably going to have to go” for the lead.
Strategic Risk’s competition includes Camigol, Trelawny, All to Win, and Squire, the second- through fifth-place finishers, respectively, behind Fourth and Central in the six-furlong Dr. Fager Stakes six weeks ago. Fourth and Central was forced to bypass the Affirmed due to a minor injury.
Camigol attended Fourth and Central’s pace from start to finish despite breaking a step slow and being jostled some after rushing up the rail in the run down the backstretch of the Dr. Fager. The outing was the first for Camigol since his distant third-place finish five weeks earlier behind the Casse-trained Ewing in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special.
Trelawny raced forwardly placed and had little excuse, while All to Win finished best of all in the Dr. Fager, although he galloped out in just average fashion suggesting he might not sustain that kind of rally going seven furlongs for the first time in the Affirmed.
Wootun is one of three last-out maiden winners in the field and perhaps the most dangerous of the group. The 66 Beyer Speed Figure he registered for his 2 1/2-length victory on Sept. 27 is the highest main-track Beyer posted by any member of the Affirmed lineup.
Susan’s Girl
Mythical, winner of the Grade 3 Adirondack this summer at Saratoga, takes on Florida-sired company for the first time and will be an overwhelming favorite from the extreme outside post in the 12-filly Susan’s Girl.
With three victories in four career starts, Mythical is the only horse in either division of the Sire Series on Saturday with more than one win. The Arindel homebred captured her maiden locally by 8 1/2 lengths in April before making her next three starts at Saratoga, where she won both the Adirondack and Tremont stakes before finishing a tiring fifth after setting a torrid and contested pace stretching to seven furlongs for the first time in the Grade 1 Spinaway. The race was captured in one-sided fashion by current division leader Tommy Jo.
“She’s been kind of pinned inside in every race and forced to go as fast as she can that opening half-mile, so being drawn on the outside could be a major advantage,” said Brian Cohen, president of Arindel. “It wouldn’t surprise me to see her in front again, although ideally I think we’d love to see her sit outside horses and relax.
“She’s definitely the class of the field and if she’s ever going to get seven furlongs, it should be in this spot against Florida-breds on Saturday.”
Mythical is one of two Arindel runners in the race, along with Drama, a wire-to-wire maiden winner going 6 1/2 furlongs in her most recent start Aug. 31.
“Don’t sleep on Drama. She’s very fast, but we feel she can rate and stretch out even a little further,” Cohen advised.
Mythical will face a field that includes Finding Strength and Love Like Lucy, the second- and third-place finishers behind Lennilu in the six-furlong Desert Vixen Stakes. Lennilu is skipping the second leg of the series to compete in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint on Oct. 31 at Del Mar.
Finding Strength dueled Lennilu from start to finish before coming out on the short end of a nose-bobbing finish in the Desert Vixen.
“She’s doing great since the race, and I don’t feel she necessarily needs to be on the lead this time,” said Finding Strength’s trainer, Michael Yates. “I feel like she can stalk and finish and that going seven furlongs may actually be an advantage for her.”
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