HOT SPRINGS, Ark. – Send in the closers.
The Grade 3, $1 million Southwest Stakes on Friday at Oaklawn Park could have a completely different pace scenario than the track’s first Kentucky Derby points race of the season, the Smarty Jones.
“There’s a lot of pace in this race,” said trainer Mark Casse.
Casse won the Smarty Jones with Strategic Risk, who was prominent throughout for a 4 1/2-length win in the 1 1/16-mile race on Jan. 3.
This time around, the Daily Racing Form Derby Watch member could employ different tactics against three quick runners breaking from the inside: Reclamation, who wired his rivals in a maiden special weight sprint last out at Oaklawn; D’code, who earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 99 doing the same here Dec. 14; and Buetane, the Grade 2 San Vicente runner-up stretching out for six-time Southwest-winning trainer Bob Baffert.
The Southwest drew a field of 14, but Derby Watch member Litmus Test will not start, according to Tom Ryan, managing partner of co-owner SF Racing. There are five runners coming out of the Smarty Jones, while a total of 10 entered last started at Oaklawn.
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The Southwest, at 1 1/16 miles, is slotted as the 11th of 12 races on a card that begins at 11:30 a.m. Central. The card was postponed a week because of a winter storm, but the forecast Friday is sunny and a high of 72 degrees, according to Accuweather. The first five finishers earn Kentucky Derby points on a scale of 20-10-6-4-2.
Strategic Risk picked up 10 points in the Smarty Jones. He could bid from off the pace Friday, as he did when he won the In Reality division of the Florida Sire Stakes at this distance Nov. 29 at Gulfstream Park. With the scratch of Litmus Test, Strategic Risk will break from post 8 under regular rider Javier Castellano.
“I see him midpack, maybe,” Casse said. “Javier knows him very well. It looks like a lot of pace, so we’ll hope that happens. And you know, sometimes races, it looks like there’s a lot of pace, and then nobody goes, and there’s other times when you don’t think there’s pace, and everybody goes. So the good news is I have a multiple Eclipse Award-winning rider riding him, so I don’t have to make those decisions.”
Casse also will saddle Silent Tactic, who was second in the Smarty Jones after running second in the Grade 3 Grey on the Tapeta at Woodbine. He will start from post 10 under Cristian Torres.
“You would expect him now, with making his second start on dirt, that he should see some improvement,” Casse said. “I thought his first [dirt] race was great. He rallied when nobody else was rallying that day, and the faster they go early, the better he’s going to like it.”
Casse trains both horses for John Oxley.
Baytown Dreamer returns after running third in the Smarty Jones, while Sleepingonfreedom also advances off a fourth-place effort in the Smarty Jones.
“I thought the last race was a paceless race,” said Kenny McPeek, who trains Sleepingonfreedom, as well as another Southwest starter, Liberty National. “He really didn’t have a chance. The pace of that race was just so dawdling, it really turned into a four- or five-furlong sprint home. He ran respectable, but he needs to find another level and we’re going to give him a chance to try to do that.”
Rancho Santa Fe finished fifth in the Smarty Jones after winning the first two starts of his career in Kentucky. He will start from post 4 under Flavien Prat.
“There was not much pace last time,” said Brad Cox, who trains Rancho Santa Fe. “He was kind of wide throughout. Actually, I thought he ran very well to be fifth in there given the trip he had.
“Oftentimes, when you have those slow paces and you’re hung wide, you just seem to kind of struggle, and he did. He couldn’t get the trip. The horses on the lead or close to it stayed on fairly well.”
A capable new face is Soldier N Diplomat. He last raced in November and was third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. Jose Ortiz has the mount on Soldier N Diplomat from post 12, with the scratch of Litmus Test.
“The horse has got a tremendous amount of ability,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “He’s growing a lot, having a few changes in that regard, and we’ve given him plenty of time because of how much growth he’s showing. We have a lot of confidence in the horse.”
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Soldier N Diplomat tracked the pace when making his two-turn debut in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
“He can get whatever trip Jose wants to give him,” said Asmussen, a three-time winner of the Southwest. “The horse is very handy and manageable.”
The capable Liberty National enters off a troubled second-place finish in the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds. He will start from post 6 under Brian Hernandez Jr.
“I think he’s a stalking type,” said McPeek. “He’s a horse that just needs to lay off any early speed. You can lay him closer if you want to. He’s a horse that’s tactical.”
D’code’s debut win earned him the second-highest Beyer for a 2-year-old of 2025. He broke on top, set the pace, and won by more than eight lengths. For the Southwest, D’code will start from post 2 under Luis Saez.
“I think the horse will be forwardly placed,” said trainer Ray Ashford Jr. “And as we’ve learned a long, long time ago, the shortest way around is right there on the rail. When we drew the race, I was fine with the post.”
He has also been pleased with how D’code emerged from his standout win and said there are reasons to believe he will be effective going two turns.
“It’s easy for him, and that’s definitely a plus,” Ashford said. “But the horse is eating everything in the tub, and I think he’s gained weight since he ran. One thing about him, he likes to go to the track. He goes up there and trains. He doesn’t overexert himself, but he gets a lot out of it. He’ll do whatever you ask of him,”
Others making up the field are Circle Tap and Spirit of Royal, who both won local maiden special weight routes last out at Oaklawn for trainer Dallas Stewart, and Bricklin, who wired a field of first-level allowance rivals at a mile last out in Hot Springs.
The card Friday includes the Martha Washington, which carries points for the Kentucky Oaks, and a pair of overnight stakes.
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