The makeup of the nominal feature on the Thursday card at Churchill Downs, a $134,000 allowance/optional-claiming race at 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, will largely depend on the state of the turf course. Churchill was off the turf Sunday with rain throughout Kentucky. The early forecast for Thursday in Louisville shows a 60 percent chance of precipitation.
Top Gun Girl is the morning-line favorite for Wesley Ward in this tilt for fillies and mares who have never won $18,000 twice other-than, who have never won three races, or for a claiming tag of $80,000. The mare may figure on either surface. Although two of her three wins have come on turf, the other win came in a five-furlong sprint on the Churchill Downs main track in 2022.
Mucho Macho Girl, who is 15-1 on the morning line, would move up with a shift to dirt and certainly figures to drop to lower odds if that is the case. She has never started on turf while winning a third of her nine lifetime starts, and was stakes-placed earlier this year at Oaklawn.
Connie K, who is multiple stakes-placed this year, also should offer value off her 20-1 morning line. She has made all but one of her 26 starts on dirt, with six wins, more than $500,000 in earnings, and multiple stakes placings this year. She is coming off a solid third in a Churchill dirt sprint in which the claiming price was $100,000.
◗ A key race on Friday’s Churchill Downs card also will be dependent on the condition of the turf course. The card is highlighted by three allowance/optional-claiming races, chief among those a turf sprint that has attracted stakes winners Bushido, Outadore, and Mischievous Rogue, among other veteran performers.
◗ This week at Churchill Downs is highlighted by Saturday’s popular Claiming Crown, which offers $1.1 million across eight races with starter allowance conditions, celebrating blue-collar horses. The average field size for those eight races is 14.8 entrants, with an oversubscribed group of 14 in the featured $200,000 Claiming Crown Jewel.