DEL MAR, Calif. – Let’s set the over-under for international wins on this Breeders’ Cup Saturday at 2.5, and it’s not a huge stretch to imagine horses who shipped to Del Mar from distant lands winning five. That would encompass the four turf races and the Classic.
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It probably will pay to take a deep dive. We’re ordering these from most important to least important race.
Classic
Trying to read vibes, it feels like Forever Young has attracted less Classic attention this year than last. He has made only a handful of starts, none in America, since finishing a creditable if not especially close third in the 2024 Classic, and in his last big race he disappointed, third in the Dubai World Cup.
Don’t hold that defeat against him. Forever Young left his heart in Saudi Arabia the month before after an epic battle with the great Hong Kong horse Romantic Warrior. It gutted Forever Young for Dubai.
Forever Young always was going to get the summer off. His comeback run won’t knock your socks off, but that’s the whole idea of a prep. Forever Young’s a year older and more mature, and it’s always easier for a horse to do something significant – like traveling halfway around the globe for the world’s toughest dirt race – the second time than the first.
Turf
Nine internationals populate the Turf. Shock waves around the racing world if one doesn’t win.
Ethical Diamond has a great trainer and is sharp, but this is a Class 2 handicapper facing some of the best 1 1/2-mile grass runners in the world. And he drew post 14. Silawi pulled a 10-1 upset in the Canadian International but has no credentials to come close to winning this. Silawi plays a role regardless, a horse who consistently shows speed.
Wimbledon Hawkeye already had his crowning achievement of 2025, shipping from England to Kentucky Downs for a narrow score in the $3.5 million Nashville Derby. The Godolphin “B” team here, El Cordobes, whipped him over the summer.
Rashabar’s trainer, Brian Meehan, sends live Breeders’ Cup horses. This one won’t embarrass himself, but he’s not ready to win at this level. Treated like a miler most of his career, Rashabar recently has stretched in distance and makes his first start over 1 1/2 miles. The ground probably was against him last out in the Prix Dollar, but the Japanese horse who ran him down in a better performance two back finished 16th in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Rashabar clearly has developed physically in the last few months: He’s going the right direction.
Trainer Charlie Appleby strongly felt that with a better trip El Cordobes could have finished second in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic – second, not first. Appleby also said he could never imagine El Cordobes beating Rebel’s Romance. El Cordobes is getting better all the time and could have a fine 2026, but something like a third-place finish seems like his best hope.
:: BREEDERS’ CUP TURF: See DRF’s special section with top contenders, odds, comments, news, and more
Amiloc merits a longer look, though as a 3-year-old gelding he might wind up better suiting the 2026 Turf at Keeneland. Amiloc despite being a natural staying type had enough speed to lead a seven-furlong all-weather race debuting at age 2. Medium-bodied and athletic, Amiloc possesses a very strong, very sustained run. He ran so hard winning the King Edward at Royal Ascot that trainer Ralph Beckett gave him the rest of the summer off and pointed for autumn – this race. Going 1 3/4 miles coming back from his break, Amiloc gave way in the late stages to Al Riffa, who heads to the Melbourne Cup with a chance.
Don’t underestimate Goliath. His performance in the 2024 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, run over 1 1/2 miles on firm going, would win the Turf. An ambitious winter and spring – the Japan Cup, the QE II in Hong Kong, where he had trouble – might have caught up to Goliath when he bottomed out in June, but he has regained his form. Dubai Honour has plenty of class, and Goliath saw him off comfortably in the Grosser Preis von Baden. Rebel’s Romance twice prepped for BC Turf glory in Germany.
Rebel’s Romance clearly can win his third Turf, and at age 7 the gelding doesn’t appear to have lost much, if anything. His Joe Hirsch Turf Classic win at Aqueduct was ridiculously easy, and while Rebel’s Romance holds his own on European courses, a flat, turning oval – American-style racing – is his thing. Keep in mind that Rousham Park in another two strides catches him in the 2024 Turf, and this seems like a deeper race.
That in great part owes to the presence of Minnie Hauk, a very tough loser as the Arc favorite. The head loss doesn’t matter much with regard to this race: Treat her as a horse good enough to have won an Arc. Watch her race at Chester, with turns as tight as Del Mar’s, and figure this course won’t get her beat. Minnie Hauk has plenty of pace and will like the firm going. But since she is the favorite, we’re obligated to poke at her form.
While the Arc turned into a great race to watch, it was far from a great Arc. Same can be said of the Epsom Oaks. Minnie Hauk beat three horses in the Yorkshire Oaks and not much at all in the Irish Oaks, and now travels from Ireland, a 3-year-old filly, to run one month after a tough race.
Mile
An international horse, Notable Speech, figures favored in the Mile – deservedly so. A good third in the 2024 Mile as a 3-year-old, Notable Speech has been up and down throughout his career and ran below his best in his first three starts this year, looming and going flat late in both the J.T. Lockinge and the Queen Anne. A turnback in distance to six furlongs did not unlock his talent, but a tactical adjustment – letting Notable Speech drop farther off the pace – got him back on track in the Jacques Le Marois. That was no vintage Marois, and victorious Diego Velazquez checked in a tame fifth in the Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland in October, but Notable Speech definitely was best in the Marois, done in by a tough trip. The trainer acknowledged Notable Speech might perform better around turns than down a straight, as evidenced not just by his BC Mile but also his first two starts, run on a flat, turning all-weather strip.
Sahlan won France’s other open Group 1 mile, the Moulin, saved by the wire as the luckless 4-year-old Rosallion came hard on his outside. That race marked a high point for Sahlan, who will be a better 4-year-old and is, his trainer said this week, in a growth and change period this fall. Sahlan broke awkwardly and raced listlessly early in the French 2000 Guineas; he finished with good energy but much too late. Sahlan emerged sick from a disappointing next start before ascending again. He’s a midpacker with a nice turn of foot but needs to improve again.
Jonquil is probably his equal at a better price. Jonquil started his season with a going-away win over BC Turf runner Rashabar in the seven-furlong Greenham, a Guineas prep. His owner, Juddmonte, had Field of Gold for the English and Irish 2000 Guineas, so Jonquil went to the French Guineas. He ran a winning race that stamps him as a Mile contender. Perhaps pulling just slightly too hard during that right-handed mile, Jonquil traveled strongly to the lead while barely asked – and then seemed to get lost. Victorious Henri Matisse came whooshing up on the outside, and though Jonquil jumped back into the fray, it was too late. Dodging Field of Gold again at Royal Ascot, Jonquil failed to adapt to the six-furlong Commonwealth Cup, hit a flat spot in the Lennox at Goodwood, but finally built on his French Guineas run with a comfortable win the Celebration Mile, a good Group 2, though a Group 2 nonetheless.
The Lion In Winter has had a weird season. A hope for the Derby when the year began, he made no impression in that race – other than telling his trainer he was a miler. The Lion In Winter, who has decent gate speed and can stalk the pace, was losing ground late to Sahlan in the Moulin and at Ascot two weeks ago in the QE II finished second to a 100-1 shot.
:: BREEDERS’ CUP MILE: See DRF’s special section with top contenders, odds, comments, news, and more
Quirat was an even longer price, 150-1, when he “accidentally” won the Sussex, a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race, as a purported pacemaker for Field of Gold. Qirat is a Goodwood specialist because he likes turns, and his trainer said he suffered a pulled muscle in his Aug. 23 start at York before encountering soft going he disliked Oct. 4 at Longchamp. Post 13 probably rules out an upset.
Notes on the Breeders’ Cup Challenge race in Chile, a 10-furlong contest, that got Gran Oriente into the BC Mile include the words “gallumpher” and “unimpressive.” Do with that what you will.
Filly and Mare Turf
Let’s start with the two Godolphin horses, Cinderella’s Dream and Diamond Rain.
Consider Cinderella’s Dream like one should consider her stablemate Rebel’s Romance: a horse based in Europe who’s not a European horse. Cinderella’s Dream turned in five strong races and one far lesser showing during 2024. The five good ones, culminating in a fast-closing second in the Filly and Mare Turf, came over flat, turning, left-handed oval tracks in Dubai and America, while Cinderella’s Dream finished seventh running a straight mile at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas.
Cinderella’s Dream started her season getting touched off in the Balanchine Stakes at Meydan by Choisya, who won the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland in her next start. She managed a Group 1 win going a straight mile in the Falmouth on July 11 and since has been aimed at the Filly and Mare Turf. She’s handy, has a sharp turn of foot, obviously does fine at Del Mar, and probably deserves to be favored.
Her stablemate Diamond Rain in her lone trip to America came up just short of beating divisional leader and Filly and Mare Turf rival She Feels Pretty – and would have beaten her with a better trip. A lightly campaigned 4-year-old, Diamond Rain probably only now is growing into her scopey frame. Her win over the once top-level Running Lion to start her campaign looked less encouraging when Running Lion floundered the rest of the season, and the race at left-handed, all-weather Newcastle seemed like an obvious prep for America. No prep for the Filly and Mare Turf, but Diamond Rain should run back to her Woodbine form.
Gezora was made morning-line favorite presumably on the strength of her win in the French Oaks. Peter Brant bought the filly after her 2-year-old campaign, and Gezora rewarded him winning the Prix de Diane, the French Oaks. One might argue she has since failed to progress and that her Oaks win in retrospect does not sparkle. The filly who closed for second, Bedtime Story, also runs in the Filly and Mare Turf and in five post-Oaks starts has proven quite limited. Once a horse who went to the front, Bedtime Story now lacks any semblance of positional pace and has only a modest turn of foot, and connections seem to have spent most of the year trying to figure out what she wants to do.
As for Gezora, she got the summer off and returned in the female-restricted Arc prep, the Prix Vermeille. She ran . . . fine. From a stalking position she made a moderate run at victorious Aventure but never came close to catching her. Aventure returned to finish 11th in the Arc, though that was better than Gezora. Ridden by Tom Marquand, a good rider but a surprising choice for a major French trainer, and a 31-1 shot, Gezora raced midpack in the early stages of the Arc before Marquand, to avoid getting stuck wide, took her farther back. Gezora never made a run, never came close to contention. Surely, she can do better – but how much?
See The Fire got a favorable trip and nearly won the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera on the Arc undercard, but that race came up a soft Group 1, with a four-horse blanket finish. See The Fire is a good horse and has been since 2023, when she finished third in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile. That also means we know where her ceiling and her limitations. She might never have run a better race she did May 15 at York (left-handed, relatively flat course) in the Group 2 Middleton. Nearly all that 12-length margin of victory came in the final 1 1/2 furlongs. See The Fire twice this summer faced top-class males, running respectably but soundly defeated with no obvious excuse in either race. Back at York for the International she could not even run down a rabbit who had opened a huge lead and was stopping badly at the wire.
Atsila appears to like firm footing and turns but also so far has been an eight- or nine-furlong horse not nearly up for this level of racing. She still rates higher than the final international, Cathredal, who Atsila beat in the one-mile Matron.
Turf Sprint
Starlust last year became the second European winner of the Turf Sprint, and this renewal includes four Europeans and two Japanese horses – one if also-eligible Puro Magic fails to draw into the field.
The other Japan-based horse, Invincible Papa, only turned to grass racing two starts ago and at least will prove a pace factor. In his turf debut, a right-handed six-furlong sprint, he bolted to the lead before getting swallowed up in deep stretch. Last out, going six furlongs around a left-handed bend, Invincible Papa again sped to the lead, this time managing to hold on.
Arizona Blaze easily rates top billing among the internationals. With better luck he might have won the Juvenile Turf Sprint at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup, and Arizona Blaze comes here after a career-best performance winning the Group 1 Flying Five, a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race. That came about three weeks after the a career nadir, an 11th in the Nunthorpe that came with no apparent excuse. Arizona Blaze loves five furlongs and has plenty of speed but also has no trouble sitting behind a couple of rivals.
His stablemate, Bucanero Fuerte, A) isn’t as good, and B) needs six furlongs to hit his peak.
She’s Quality rallied solidly – her standard style – for fourth in the Flying Five, then squeezed in another start, not looking quite her best over soft ground in the Prix de l’Abbaye. Her running style could play well in a speed-packed field, but She’s Quality has raced only twice around a bend. She did win in June 2024 going right-handed on grass but faced seven rivals in a far, far lesser race than this.
The England-based Khaadem has become the American-based Khaadem: He traveled for the Mint Kentucky Turf Sprint on Aug. 30 at Kentucky Downs and has not gone home. What a remarkable horse, still winning graded races at age 9. Alas, the 5 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland, where, as is his wont, he went last to first, was on the short side for the old man, and now he goes just five furlongs while stepping up considerably in class.
Dirt Mile/Sprint
Uruguay? Yes, Uruguay, the homeland of Dirt Mile runner Touch of Destiny and the only place he has raced. He is unbeaten in six starts, but how far will that get him? Touch of Destiny just turned 3 on July 1, and in the Breeders’ Cup Challenge win that got him a berth in Saturday’s race he got 14 pounds from older rivals of questionable quality.
The horse in the Sprint, another youngster, looks more interesting. Japan-based American Stage had barely turned 3 when he made two starts in Dubai this winter and spring. They weren’t bad, either, and American Stage might not have been at his best on the Meydan surface. He failed to show as much speed as he had in Japan, where he rocketed out of the gate every time, and probably will prove as fast as the quickest American horses.