Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 2:43 p.m. (ET)
The lack of early speed in this race could favor the dropper Nilo's Rose (#4), who has faced significantly better competition in her recent starts. The Pace Projector is predicting that she could be clearly in front in a scenario favoring front-runners. I do view her as the horse to beat, but I'm just not totally convinced that she's still capable of running the kinds of races we saw from her early in her career. However, she may not need to produce her best form against this field. If the track is still as speed-favoring as it was on Thursday, it may help her carry the one-mile distance.
Main rival Soundbite (#6) ran well at a slightly higher level two back in October. The track was favoring inside runners that day, and she did well to close into second behind a gate-to-wire winner. She needed some time off after that, and she was a little dull in her return to the races earlier this month. Yet that was a tougher allowance race, and she figures to be fitter second off a layoff as Linda Rice drops her in class.
Trainer Antonio Arriaga has entered a pair of contenders in this race. The one likely to attract more support is Lika Rolling Stone (#2), who has consistently posted speed figures that put her in the mix. She responded well to stretching back out to a mile last time and should be involved in the finish if she runs as well here.
I'm just a little more interested in Arriaga's other horse at a bigger price. Baby Sassicaia (#5) hasn't yet hit the board since getting claimed by this barn, but she has run better than it looks a few times. She's been the victim of wide trips in several of her starts and last time was outside chasing against a strong rail bias on Feb. 13. I can easily forgive that lackluster effort, and her prior form puts her in the mix. She's also getting needed class relief dropping out of a series of starter allowance races.