Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 1:40 p.m. (ET)
The speed of Certified Loverboy (#2) has to be respected given the overall lack of pace in this race. Yet paces rarely seem to develop as they seem on this circuit, and I wonder if someone will go forward to keep him company early. I also have some concerns about this last race. I know he was setting a pretty quick pace for the distance, but I didn't like that he faded behind fellow pace rival Mr. Papagiorgio in what was a weaker race at this level.
I much prefer Bramito (#4), who seemed to really appreciate this distance when he first tried it at Saratoga back in June. He was more engaged in the early stages that day and finished very strongly once guided into the clear. I also thought he ran a lot better than it looks in his subsequent start at this distance behind Malarchuk. That was a forwardly dominated race, and he was always out of position racing very wide on both turns. He's run well around one turn since then, performing better than it might appear last time when closing resolutely up the rail despite getting put in tight quarters for nearly the entire stretch run. I like the switch to more aggressive rider Ricardo Santana, and Gustavo Rodriguez seems to excel in these dirt routes.
The other horse I'll throw into the mix along with that runner is Bourbon Day (#1). His best dirt form has been achieved over wet tracks, but he's had some excuses in his dry dirt races. He's a little interesting switching into Linda Rice's barn following a freshening.