If you like Instant Replay in the Indiana Derby, a solid position to take, you’d better take a long look at Heavenly Sunset in the Indiana Oaks. The pair has been working together for trainer Brad Cox at Churchill Downs, and the filly has more than held her own with the colt.
That said, Heavenly Sunset faces two considerable impediments to winning the Grade 3, $200,000 Indiana Oaks. The filly who beat her May 31 in a first-level Churchill allowance, Clicquot, starts as the likely favorite in Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile race. And Heavenly Sunset, the first-call leader in her three starts, including her sprint debut, faces a potentially serious pace rival in stretch-out sprinter Top.
On the plus side, there are only five rivals to beat in the Indiana Oaks, and a good chance at a graded stakes placing led connections to choose this spot over the ungraded Iowa Oaks, where Heavenly Sunset also was entered.
Heavenly Sunset, a pricey Constitution filly who runs in the silks of Qatar Racing, faded late to fourth in her sprint debut at Fair Grounds before demonstrating in April at Keeneland that she’s a better route horse with a free-running maiden score. In the Churchill allowance, she laid down strong fractions while chased by Clicquot, who collared her in upper stretch and drew away for a 1 3/4-length score.
“I’d say the other filly was better on the day, but on the gallop-out, [Heavenly Sunset] did win by five,” Cox said.
Clicquot made her route debut May 31 and clearly was held in high regard before she’d ever raced, since the filly went off as the even-money favorite in her career debut March 1 at Gulfstream. Clicquot, a Quality Road filly trained by Brendan Walsh, made a bold mid-race move she failed to sustain, finishing sixth, yet went off the 7-5 favorite when she notched an easy second-out maiden win at Keeneland.
Truth be told, neither Clicquot nor Heavenly Sunset broke any stopwatches finishing up that Churchill route, where the final 2 1/2 furlongs went in a slow 33.06, including a final sixteenth in 7.03, but alternatives don’t jump off the page in this short field. Deloraine came home a tepid third in her three stakes starts. Goldeneye won the Lady Jacqueline at Thistledown, a race that came just two weeks ago and yielded an 80 Beyer far above the filly’s par.
That leaves Sturgeon Moon, who’s not impossible. Unraced since a modest fourth last November in the Golden Rod, Sturgeon Moon has a win over the track and a dirt-route victory last fall at Keeneland. She makes her first start for trainer Will Walden and has turned in a long series of works at Keeneland. Visual evidence from public workout video shows drills not just fast but impressive, though Sturgeon Moon has yet to show she’s fast enough to beat the Indiana Oaks favorites.
Michael G. Shaefer Memorial
The first thing to figure out about two older-horse $100,000 undercard stakes Saturday is who’s running where.
Start with the Michael G. Schaefer, carded for one mile and 70 yards on dirt. Surly Furious is cross-entered Saturday at Horseshoe in the Jonathan Schuster Memorial on turf, status unknown. Money Supply is cross-entered in the Schuster and will run there, according to trainer Joe Sharp. Encino’s connections also plan to choose the Schuster over the Schaefer, trainer Brad Cox said.
Moonlight, another cross-entrant, seems all but certain to wind up in the Schaefer on dirt. Two scratches would leave a field of 10 in the Schaefer.
“There’s so much speed in the race, including him,” trainer Steve Asmussen said of his entrant, Track Phantom.
An upper echelon early 3-year-old in 2024, Track Phantom didn’t race after the Kentucky Derby until November, but after a solid second in a seven-furlong comeback meant to get the colt back to routes, Track Phantom struggled. A modest fourth in the Tenacious in December at Fair Grounds, Track Phantom showed little in the Louisiana in January, finishing a distant seventh. His May 1 start over six furlongs, far too short for the horse, should be viewed as a placeholder more than a final indictment, but Track Phantom nonetheless has lacked spark.
“We need to see more effort from him,” Asmussen said.
Moonlight merits a long look. A one-time winner in his first dozen starts – albeit while showing ability – Moonlight has won his last two. The first of those came in a watered-down, off-turf Fair Grounds allowance, though Moonlight did prevail by almost 10 lengths. But last out, in a May 2 Churchill one-turn mile, Moonlight made a sustained run over the last half-mile to win by 1 1/4 lengths over Not This Boy. Not This Boy returned to action June 16, romping in a Churchill second-level allowance while earning a 100 Beyer Speed Figure.
Encino, by Nyquist, has gone 4-2-2-0 on synthetics and lost his last two dirt starts by 35 combined lengths. He figures to race prominently from the start in the Schuster, his grass debut.
“I’ve seen enough from him on the dirt,” Cox said. “Just hope his synthetic races translate well to running on turf.”
Money Supply is 5-1-0-0 on turf, his lone win coming by a neck over Runaway Storm in last year’s Schuster. Money Supply, a $35,000 claim in August 2023, has since continued enriching his connections, while Runaway Storm on Saturday races for just the second time since the 2024 Schuster. His comeback race May 17 did not offer encouraging signs.
Hulman George, Distaff
The $100,000 Mari Hulman George, a dirt route for older fillies and mares, has a potential standout. The $100,000 Indiana General Assembly Distaff, a turf route for older fillies and mares, does not.
The morning line lists Alpine Princess as the 5-2 favorite in the Hulman George, but the Brad Cox-trained filly looks more like a 6-5 shot. Alpine Princess has lost five in a row since capturing the Remington Oaks last September by almost 10 lengths, but she finished a close second in the Comely at Aqueduct, a close second in the Houston Ladies Classic, and exits a creditable third in the Shawnee at Churchill. The two in front of her in that race, Royal Spa and Gin Gin, were stronger rivals than anything in the Hulman George.
Our Pretty Woman finished fifth in the Ladies Classic but could prove the favorite’s chief rival. Her high-water mark came in the 2024 Fair Grounds Oaks, where Our Pretty Woman finished second. But after landing the Monomoy Girl in June of that year, Our Pretty Woman didn’t start again until January. She went evenly at Houston and in April showed little in the Dig a Diamond at Oaklawn.
“I think this is a good spot to start her back,” trainer Steve Asmussen said. “We just didn’t get into a good rhythm with her early in the year.”
She’s Lookin Lucky could be the right horse for the General Assembly, though one wishes she had more than 17 days since a solid comeback run following a winter break. She’s Lookin Lucky has a habit of waiting on rivals after making the lead in the homestretch, but more than that, she might just have gotten tired making her first start since November, when the sharp Pharoah’s Wine ran her down June 18 in a high-level Churchill allowance.
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