DEL MAR, Calif. – Favorites always win the Graduation Stakes in summer at Del Mar, so the pressure is on 2-year-old Hero Or Zero for the second start of his career on Friday.
Runaway debut winner at Santa Anita, Hero Or Zero is likely to start favored in the $100,000 Graduation, a five-furlong stakes for California-bred 2-year-olds shortened this year from 5 1/2 furlongs. Not that a half-furlong shorter makes a difference.
Favorites won the Graduation in seven of the last 10 years, including the last four, since Del Mar reinstalled dirt. Hero Or Zero figures to extend the streak. He meets sharp debut winner Sammy Davis, the filly What’s a Good Name, and three longshots whose speed figures fall short of stakes-caliber.
Based on numbers, the Graduation is a two-horse race between Hero Or Zero and Sammy Davis. Both ran relatively fast and earned corresponding figures in their debut victories – Hero Or Zero earned a 76 Beyer Speed Figure; Sammy Davis earned a 67. Both favorites ran like they worked.
Doug O’Neill trains Hero Or Zero, a gray by Pavel owned and bred by J. Paul Reddam. Before the colt ran, O’Neill believed he had above-average ability. Hero Or Zero showed it June 15.
“He was training forwardly, we were optimistic he was gonna run big,” O’Neill said.
Hero Or Zero pressed the pace and drew away by more than six lengths under Umberto Rispoli, who rides him Friday. O’Neill considered running Hero Or Zero in the Grade 3 Best Pal Stakes on Saturday, but will keep him with California-breds for now.
“He’s funny, he’s not a real big horse,” O’Neill said. “But he’s got a big stride for a horse who’s not that tall.”
O’Neill also trains impressive debut-winning 2-year-old Thirsty Rebel, who will wait for the I’m Smokin Stakes for California-breds on Sept. 5 or Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 7.
John Sadler trains Sammy Davis, a Sir Prancealot gelding wheeling back 20 days after his debut victory July 19. Winning the Graduation on short rest is not unprecedented. The 2022 winner, The Big Wam, was wheeling back in 21 days; 2023 winner Lord Prancealot won the stakes 14 days after his maiden win. Hector Berrios rides Sammy Davis.
The filly What’s a Good Name entered the CTBA Stakes on Aug. 3 but scratched to face boys.
“I think the Graduation is easier,” trainer Peter Miller said before the CTBA.
What’s a Good Name defeated fillies July 19, and Miller was not crazy about running her back just 15 days later.
“I just thought the extra five days, maybe a better draw [than post 2] and she gets three pounds,” Miller explained.
What’s a Good Name, however, drew poorly in the Graduation. The filly is stuck on the rail under Juan Hernandez.
Three others entered in the Graduation are Desert Dawn, Trump Era, and Fionello.
◗ A pair of well-regarded maidens who were nominated to the Graduation run Friday in California-bred maiden races instead of the stakes. Race 4 first-time starter He’s a Knockout has worked like he will fire in the turf sprint; race 5 speedster Tommy Norris is the one to catch in the dirt sprint.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.