ARCADIA, Calif. – One is an established graded stakes winner, while another is an undefeated allowance filly in her first stakes race. Who to bet, proven class or undefined potential?
Conventional handicapping says Grade 3 winner Tirupati holds the advantage over 3-for-3 Raw Ability in the Grade 3 Royal Heroine Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita. However, bettors sometimes must deviate from the norm to catch a price. That’s the idea Saturday.
Thirteen fillies and mares will race a mile on turf in the Royal Heroine, which goes as race 7 on a 10-race card. In terms of value, the $100,000 stakes is more appealing than a second-level allowance for older males in race 4. Five entered that mile and a sixteenth race, led by well-bred Eagles Flight and Mirahmadi.
The large field in the Royal Heroine includes 2024 winner Uncorked, graded stakes-placed turf sprinter Venganza, South American Group 1 winner Sun Of Hill, and kamikaze front-runner Hamwood Flier. Attention will be focused on Tirupati and upset candidate Raw Ability.
Tirupati emerged as an above average Santa Anita turf miler by finishing second in the Grade 2 Buena Vista and racing wire to wire in the Grade 3 Wilshire last month. Tirupati is the class of the Royal Heroine but is unlikely to get another easy lead. Her rivals on Saturday include speedster Hamwood Flier and pace-presser Sneaker.
Tirupati will have company. It might not matter. Loose on the lead is her best trip, but Tirupati can be effective from just off the lead. Umberto Rispoli rides for trainer Jonathan Thomas and George Strawbridge’s Augustin Stable. Tirupati is the 2-1 favorite, and four of the past five Royal Heroines have been won by the favorite.
Raw Ability, listed at 9-2, is the Royal Heroine gamble. John Sadler trains Raw Ability for Hronis Racing, and the filly has done everything right. Purchased after a debut victory last summer in Ireland, Raw Ability won her U.S. debut in an entry-level allowance turf mile in September at Del Mar by rallying from last at the quarter pole with a flashy final quarter-mile in 22.41 seconds.
Raw Ability reproduced that performance on March 17 at Santa Anita, unleashing another 22.41 final quarter to win more decisively than the three-quarter-length margin suggests. After the second-level allowance, Sadler circled the Royal Heroine for Raw Ability’s next start.
“She’s training great, and that looks like a nice little step up for her,” Sadler said. “It’s a mile again. She has such a good kick, I think that’s probably a perfect distance for her.”
Hector Berrios rides Raw Ability, whose last-out 83 Beyer Speed Figure is significantly less than Tirupati’s last-out 93. One reason for the discrepancy in figures and final times is due to the slow early pace of Raw Ability’s recent allowance score. The half-mile was a dawdling 49.52.
If she delivers another explosive kick on Saturday, Raw Ability just might upset Tirupati.
◗ Sadler-trained Eagles Flight, a 4-year-old Curlin sibling to Horse of the Year Flightline, is 6-5 over Mirahmadi in race 4. Eagles Flight moves up following an entry-level allowance romp, while Mirahmadi drops from a last-place finish in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap.
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