January could not handle fillies her own age in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, but maybe, with a meaningful weight break, she can take down older rivals Friday at Newmarket in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes.
She has the right connections for the job in trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore and has roused the interest of antepost bettors. As of Wednesday, English bookmakers were offering January as the 5-2 co-favorite for the Falmouth, a gender-restricted straight mile that drew a field of eight.
The other 5-2 shot in early betting, Cinderella’s Dream, is well known to Americans, as is third choice Crimson Advocate. Crimson Advocate used to be based in America with trainer George Weaver, while Cinderella’s Dream’s successful 2024 campaign centered on American racing.
Cinderella’s Dream, trained for Godolphin by Charlie Appleby, had in fact been mentioned in late spring as an intended runner in the Diana Stakes at Saratoga this weekend. Instead, she stays home in England; Appleby hasn’t run a horse in America since the Pegasus World Cup card in January.
Cinderella’s Dream nearly won the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf over 1 3/8 miles last year and was cut back from longer trips to one mile in the Group 2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot. She performed creditably but had no answer in the final furlong for Crimson Advocate, who simply outkicked her and won by 1 3/4 lengths. Crimson Advocate lacks Cinderella’s Dream’s track record, as the Duke of Cambridge was her first group stakes win since Royal Ascot 2023, but she’ll probably gets the ground she needs and could well sustain this performance level for co-trainers John and Thady Gosden.
Crimson Advocate and Cinderella’s Dream, however, both concede nine pounds to January, who could be headed to a peak in her third start at age 3. She clearly came back to action this year ring-rusty, breaking poorly and checking in eighth of 12 on May 25 in the Irish 1000 Guineas, but her Coronation was far stronger. Blocked for the better part of a furlong in upper stretch, January accelerated encouragingly once clear and looked like a winner before going slightly flat the final 150 yards, unable to reach victorious Cercene, third in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and runner-up Zarigana, winner of the French 1000 Guineas.
January’s 5-2 odds seem too short to take two days from the Falmouth, but she could come up a more playable price in parimutuel wagering Friday.
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