LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Twice in the past six years trainer Chad Brown has brought a horse to the Kentucky Derby thinking he had an above-average chance to win.
In 2018, Good Magic ran into a freak named Justify and had to settle for second behind that horse, who would go on to win the Triple Crown. In 2022, Zandon likely found the last of 10 furlongs a tad too far and had to settle for third behind the 80-1 fluke Rich Strike.
“I was very, very confident going into the race looking at the numbers, looking at the final works, having a chance to look over the whole picture of the Derby, knowing if they got a clean trip they were going to be right there and they were,” Brown said. “It’s just such a hard race to win, and I thought about that the whole walk home after those two horses. ‘Can I get back here to the quarter pole in the Derby, ready to go by them in the stretch?’ ”
Brown, winless with seven starters in six Derbies, is back in the Derby with his best shot yet. In Sierra Leone, Brown has a horse who has lost just once in four starts and who this year has won the Grade 2 Risen Star and Grade 1 Blue Grass with eye-catching stretch runs. In Domestic Product, Brown has a live longshot who may finally find the proper pace scenario to allow him to show his true talent.
:: DRF Kentucky Derby Package: Save on PPs, Clocker Reports, Betting Strategies, and more.
Brown has two of the 21 horses entered in Saturday’s 150th Kentucky Derby, a milestone event so much so that Churchill Downs saw fit to raise the purse to $5 million from $3 million. Originally, 22 horses entered the Derby, but on Tuesday, Encino was withdrawn due to a soft tissue strain. The Derby, which will be limited to 20 starters, will likely be run before a crowd of at least 150,000, some of whom will enjoy the pre-race views from above and around a swanky new $200 million paddock.
Sierra Leone, who lost the Grade 2 Remsen by a nose after making the lead in deep stretch last December, has advanced at 3, partly due to the addition of blinkers.
“I see a much different horse,” Brown said. “The raw talent’s there, but he’s a much more polished athlete now.”
In Domestic Product, Brown has a horse that has been tugging at his rider behind pedestrian paces in both the Holy Bull, where he finished second, and the Tampa Bay Derby, a race he won by a neck. He gets five-time Eclipse Award-winning rider Irad Ortiz Jr. in the Derby.
“If he gets a huge shift in pace from what he’s used to running at, I don’t think you’re going to see a marginal creep forward on his numbers, I think you’re going to see a big jump,” Brown said.
For Brown to win his first Derby, one of his horses will likely have to run by Fierceness in the stretch. Fierceness is the 2023 2-year-old champion male who is coming off a record-setting 13 1/2-length victory in the Florida Derby. He also was brilliant winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall. But he has been beaten twice, including a third-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes, where he had a compromised trip due to trouble at the start. He also was a well-beaten seventh in the Grade 1 Champagne run over a sloppy track last fall.
Fierceness will likely be just the second post-time favorite trainer Todd Pletcher will start in the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher, who has started a record 64 horses over 23 Derbies, won it twice, including in 2017 with the favored Always Dreaming.
“We just need him to run his race,” Pletcher said. “The way he breezed over the track gives us a lot of confidence. The way he ran in the Florida Derby gives us a lot of confidence. If he can show up and run the Breeders’ Cup race or the Florida Derby race then we have a lot of confidence in him.”
Always Dreaming was ridden to victory by John Velazquez, who has the mount on Fierceness and who has won 1,866 races for Pletcher over a quarter-century. Fierceness drew post 17 -- he will now break from post 16 -- and has the apparent speed – Dornoch (rail) and Track Phantom (post 11) inside of him.
“I guess the question is does anyone have his kind of speed?” Pletcher said.
Despite having to scratch Encino, Brad Cox will have two starters in the race. Catching Freedom comes off a victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and figures to be the third or fourth choice in the wagering. He has a similar look to Angel of Empire, who finished third for Cox and jockey Flavien Prat as the post-time favorite in last year’s Derby.
Just a Touch, second to Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass, shows a similar pattern to that of last year’s Derby winner Mage in that he got started in late January and comes into the race off three career starts.
“I think he’s one of the fastest horses in the race and if he takes a step forward, he’s one that’s definitely a player,” Cox said.
This year marks the 25th anniversary of Charismatic giving trainer D. Wayne Lukas his fourth victory in the Kentucky Derby. This year, Lukas starts his 50th horse in his 30th Derby in Just Steel, who is coming off a runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby.
Just Steel will be ridden by 25-year-old Keith James Asmussen, the son of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who will be running Track Phantom in the race. Steve Asmussen, the all-time leading trainer in wins (10,486 through last Saturday), is winless with 25 starters in 17 Derbies.
Muth, the Arkansas Derby winner, is not in the Kentucky Derby. He is trained by Bob Baffert, who has been banned from Churchill Downs the last three years or since Medina Spirit crossed the wire first in 2021 and tested positive for a positive for a regulated medication.
Thus, the only West Coast-based starter in this year’s Derby is Stronghold, an improving sort who beat the Baffert-trained Imagination in the Santa Anita Derby. At 2, Stronghold won a maiden race at Churchill Downs that produced Kentucky Derby runners Resilience and Track Phantom.
The undefeated Forever Young will try to give Japan its first Kentucky Derby victory. He is 5 for 5, including victories in the Saudi Derby and U.A.E. Derby. Forever Young is trained by Yoshito Yahagi, who in 2021 won two Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar.
The Japan-based T O Password also is in the race. He will be trying to become the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby in his third career start since Leonatus in 1883.
Two of the more intriguing Derby mid- to long-priced horses are Honor Marie and Resilience, who finished fourth and fifth, respectively, behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star. Honor Marie, trained by Whit Beckman, came back to run second in the Louisiana Derby, while Resilience, conditioned by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, came back to win the Grade 2 Wood Memorial with blinkers added.
Dornoch, a full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage, beat Sierra Leone in the Remsen. He won the Fountain of Youth in a scratch-reduced five-horse field before finishing fourth in the Blue Grass. He was behind horses in the Blue Grass. Trainer Danny Gargan said he will be sent from the rail Saturday by Luis Saez.
Gargan also has Society Man, the Wood Memorial runner-up at odds of 106-1 who will break from post 20.
Endlessly will try dirt for the first time after going 5 for 6 on synthetic and turf.
Mystik Dan won the Grade 3 Southwest by eight lengths before finishing a troubled third in the Arkansas Derby.
Catalytic and Grand Mo the First, a well-beaten second and third behind Fierceness in the Florida Derby, have a lot of ground to make up on Fierceness.
Epic Ride, third in the Blue Grass, drew into the Derby field when Encino came out. His trainer, John Ennis, said he plans to be aggressive away from the gate. Epic Ride will be ridden by Adam Beschizza.
Mugatu needed one more scratch by 9 a.m. Friday to get into the race.
The Kentucky Derby goes as race 12 on a 14-race card that begins at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. The Derby, which will be shown on NBC, is scheduled for 6:57 p.m.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.