Kentucky Derby picks and analysis from Daily Racing Form handicappers across the North America.
2025 Kentucky Derby (Race 12)
Distance: 1 1/4 miles
Track: Churchill Downs
Post time: 6:57 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC
Kentucky Derby field
| # | Horse | Jockey | ML Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citizen Bull | Martin Garcia | 20-1 |
| 2 | Neoequos | Luis Saez | 30-1 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | Luan Machado | 30-1 |
| 4 | Rodriguez | Mike Smith | SCR |
| 5 | American Promise | Nik Juarez | 30-1 |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | Christophe Lemaire | 30-1 |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | Joao Moreira | 15-1 |
| 8 | Journalism | Umberto Rispoli | 3-1 |
| 9 | Burnham Square | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 12-1 |
| 10 | Grande | John Velazquez | SCR |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | Joe Ramos | 30-1 |
| 12 | East Avenue | Manny Franco | 20-1 |
| 13 | Publisher | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 20-1 |
| 14 | Tiztastic | Joel Rosario | 20-1 |
| 15 | Render Judgment | Julien Leparoux | 30-1 |
| 16 | Coal Battle | Juan Vargas | 30-1 |
| 17 | Sandman | Jose Ortiz | 6-1 |
| 18 | Sovereignty | Junio Alvarado | 5-1 |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | Jareth Loveberry | 30-1 |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | Javier Castellano | 30-1 |
| 21 | Baeza | Flavien Prat |
12-1 |
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David Aragona
1. Chunk of Gold
2. Journalism
3. Final Gambit
4. Luxor Cafe
With wagering dollars on racing becoming more sophisticated and value harder to find with each passing year, the Kentucky Derby stands taller than ever as a beacon of opportunity for horseplayers. And CHUNK OF GOLD is my kind of Derby opportunity. This horse doesn’t exactly stand out as a top contender using obvious metrics. His Beyer Speed Figures are a little slow, he owns a single victory sprinting, and he goes out for connections that aren’t exactly household names even among seasoned racing fans. Yet winning the Kentucky Derby is all about peaking at the right time and possessing enough versatility to negotiate a trip in uncharted waters. On those fronts, this horse checks the boxes.
After a couple of learning experiences at Turfway, Chunk of Gold was thrown into the lion’s den at Fair Grounds, trying an unfamiliar dirt surface facing some of the best 3-year-olds in the country. He settled for runner-up honors both times, but more than held his own. He regained his momentum after encountering traffic at the quarter pole of the Risen Star, finishing a troubled second in one of the fastest prep races of the season. He then moved too soon into a fast pace in the Louisiana Derby, staying on gamely in deep stretch even as the race collapsed around him. Those experiences executing under varying circumstances should give Jareth Loveberry plenty of options from his outside draw. Best of all, he’s going to fly under the radar as horses with more compelling résumés and storylines attract attention away from this plucky overachiever.
While my wagering dollars will support my value play, I still must acknowledge that JOURNALISM is the most likely winner of this Derby, and it really isn’t even close. He’s run the fastest races, wants every furlong of the Derby’s demanding distance, and is adaptable to any kind of pace scenario. I have no knocks on him and believe he’s one of the more convincing Derby favorites to come along in the last decade. Given all the speed signed on, it seems quite likely that deep closers will work their way into the exotics. The one I find most appealing from a price standpoint is FINAL GAMBIT. He obviously has plenty to prove trying dirt for the first time, but I like the way he’s trained over the surface, and appears to be peaking at the right time.
The biggest wild card in this Derby is LUXOR CAFE. Perhaps he isn’t as accomplished as Forever Young was last year, but he’s nevertheless shown star potential in Japan. The trip and surface will be unfamiliar, but he’s piloted by one of the best jockeys in the world and possesses some of the quickest late acceleration of any horse in the field.
Mike Beer
1. Sovereignty
2. Journalism
3. Citizen Bull
4. Sandman
SOVEREIGNTY signaled there was better to come while finishing strongly in the first two starts of his career, going shorter around one turn. He was a maiden on paper only when sent to Churchill for the Grade 3 Street Sense, where he came widest into a strong pace to overrun a good field in a dominant performance.
While he has yet to earn a breakthrough Beyer Speed Figure as a 3-year-old, he did move forward in the Fountain of Youth while appearing to leave plenty of room for improvement. He maintained that form when finishing a solid second behind a talented rival in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, a race he did not need to win.
Sovereignty has been campaigned to peak on the first Saturday in May. Distance has never been a concern, and he packs a powerful finish while also possessing enough tactical speed to avoid getting too far away early.
JOURNALISM is undefeated routing, and he stamped himself as the Derby favorite a couple of months ago when dominating the Grade 2 San Felipe in his 3-year-old debut with a 108 Beyer, best in this field. While he regressed to a 102 in his final prep, that figure also makes him faster than this Derby field, and he had to overcome some adversity in that spot while put in tight and having to take up on the final turn. He has faced a total of eight rivals in his two starts this year, so how he deals with a bulky field, along with a projected much faster pace, will only be known after the gates open, and he will be a short price at that point.
The luster appears to be off last year’s 2-year-old champion male CITIZEN BULL following a disappointing effort behind Journalism last time. However, the Santa Anita Derby was only important to him as a fitness-builder, as his spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate was assured and he had looked as good as ever when easily handling his talented stablemate Rodriguez in his 3-year-old debut with a 98 Beyer. The rail draw will only pull more support away from him, though he has the kind of speed to get forward position in that long first run through the stretch, even if he has to let the pace go. He has to prove that he can do it from off the pace, but he is a talented horse and might be a massive overlay.
SANDMAN took advantage of a blazing pace to win his final prep and will be hoping for more of the same in the Kentucky Derby. While his tendency toward losing focus during the running has not cleared up with experience, he is still a powerful finisher with no distance limitations. He can impact this race late if able to work out a clean run from the back.
:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: The field, odds, point standings, news, and more
Brad Free
1. Baeza
2. Journalism
3. Sandman
4. Rodriguez (Scratched)
Based on quantity, California 3-year-olds miss the mark. Based on quality, it’s a different story. The five-runner, highly rated Santa Anita Derby is likely to produce the Kentucky Derby winner – either Santa Anita Derby runner-up BAEZA or winner JOURNALISM.
The knock against Journalism is low odds in the 5-2 range. Baeza’s price is more appealing in the 10-1 range. That is, if he starts. Baeza is an also-eligible, No. 21. He can only run in the 20-horse field if there is a defection by Friday morning. Hope he gets the chance. Baeza has a score to settle with Journalism. They are close on ability.
Baeza has run faster in each successive start, including a 101 Beyer Speed Figure runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby. Keen early, he lost ground while wide, made the lead too soon into the stretch, and battled back after being passed by Journalism. Baeza actually galloped out in front. His new rider for the Kentucky Derby is Flavien Prat. That’s a plus. Baeza would start from the outside, but he has speed to establish position. Based on works and races, he should relish 1 1/4 miles. Of course he should. His siblings include 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch.
Journalism defeated Baeza in the Santa Anita Derby after encountering trouble in the small field. Journalism was squeezed in a tight spot nearing the three-eighths, re-rallied, and won in fast time. His 102 Beyer Speed Figure, and 108 two starts back, are the highest figures in the Kentucky Derby. With a clean trip in a 20-runner field, Journalism will be tough as the favorite.
This year’s Derby is loaded with speed, which benefits late-runner SANDMAN. He scored a decisive win in the fast-pace Arkansas Derby and could get a similar setup in the Kentucky Derby. Many are dubious to get the 1 1/4 miles, but Sandman should stay the trip. He will rally wide and late.
Sovereignty is poised for a career-best after two solid races this winter at Gulfstream Park, including a runner-up finish last out in the Florida Derby. He won his only start at Churchill Downs by five lengths.
Marcus Hersh
1. Sovereignty
2. Journalism
3. Baeza
4. Burnham Square
This Derby analysis rests on two fundamental propositions: The pace will be much too fast for anyone near it to win, and two horses stand out.
It’s difficult forecasting something slower than, say, a 46.20-second opening half-mile. Citizen Bull, Neoequos, Rodriguez, and American Promise, speed horses all, break from posts 1 through 5. East Avenue works fine behind another horse but it seems is best on the lead. Owen Almighty has to leave running from post 20.
The two standouts – favored JOURNALISM and second-choice SOVEREIGNTY – don’t come quietly to this party. It’ll be a surprise if one of them doesn’t win. Journalism has run the fastest and rates as the most physically imposing Derby horse. That’s saying something, because this race features plenty of tremendous specimens, Sovereignty among them. Price shoppers hoping to see Journalism train with less verve at Churchill than in California slunk out a back door after several days of galloping and a Sunday workout.
The Beyer Speed Figures show Journalism, while overcoming a troubled Santa Anita Derby trip, taking a moderate step back from his brilliant San Felipe. The Ragozin Sheets, on the other hand, show Journalism’s number cratering, and some Sheets adherents opine that the Derby favorite enters on a pattern of doom. Perhaps a better idea: Look up from the numbers and out at the horse before our eyes. From all visual evidence, nothing Journalism has done since the Santa Anita Derby suggests further regression.
And yet, Sovereignty remains the top selection. The predicted race shape favors the horse making the last run. Journalism gets first run. Sovereignty runs him down.
While Journalism makes his first trip outside California, Sovereignty has raced in New York and Florida, and, most importantly, at Churchill. Sovereignty’s two starts this year came over a track completely unsuited to bringing out his best. He won the Fountain of Youth far from fully fit but without having to work hard, and the qualifying points he earned allowed trainer Bill Mott to go easy into the Florida Derby. Everything points to Sovereignty hitting a new peak. He’ll need to.
BAEZA needs a defection to draw in and will have post 20 if he does, but this colt can crash the exotics at a considerably better price than the top two.
Despite a demanding race over a tiring surface, BURNHAM SQUARE appears to have come out of his Blue Grass win better than he went into it. He has positive Churchill experience, and in many years would be the Derby pick. Just not this year.
Mike Welsch
1. Journalism
2. Burnham Square
3. Sovereignty
4. Publisher
After searching high and low for reasons to side against the favorite in this year’s Derby, about the only item one can find in the “nay” column when assessing JOURNALISM is the price. Granted, that’s no small matter, especially when dealing with the uncertainties of a 20-horse field and everything that can go wrong during the course of a 1 1/4-mile race for still relatively inexperienced young horses.
But one only needs to glance at all those “yeas” on the other side of the ledger to assuage any negative vibes that might creep in. The list begins with his imposing physical presence and an almost perfect and impeccable résumé that includes surviving all sorts of obstacles while getting a world of education during the Santa Anita Derby. Add the stunning impression he has made – both galloping and breezing – in his short but eye-catching stay in Louisville, and it all adds up to embracing the old adage of “better a short price than a long face” at the end of Kentucky Derby 151.
Price does come into play when separating the next two contenders, BURNHAM SQUARE and SOVEREIGNTY. Both figure to benefit from the race’s projected fast pace and have a home-court advantage vis-à-vis the favorite, having run, and in Sovereignty’s case won, over the track. Both youngsters wintered successfully in Florida, with Burnham Square capturing the Holy Bull and Sovereignty winning the Fountain of Youth in come-from-behind fashion over a Gulfstream Park strip that certainly does anything but flatter that style of running.
Burnham Square has improved from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint with each successive start. He capped his road to the Derby with his best effort yet winning the Blue Grass, with any thoughts that he might regress off such a grueling effort put to rest with a near-perfect final breeze over the track last weekend. He also is certain to offer a lot more value in the final tote than Sovereignty, another grand-looking and steadily improving sort who has been masterfully handled on the Derby trail by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Sovereignty’s two South Florida preps likely have him poised for a career-best on Derby Day.
PUBLISHER is the only maiden in the field, but he displayed marked improvement with the addition of blinkers in the Arkansas Derby. He’s another who seems ready for bigger and better things, considering the manner in which he’s exited that effort and has trained over his home track in those blinkers. Like Burnham Square and Sovereignty, he’s a late-running sort who figures to benefit from a lively pace.