The road to Kentucky Derby 152 has been filled with potholes thus far for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.
Baffert, a six-time Kentucky Derby winner, has run seven 3-year-olds in nine points-scoring races toward the Kentucky Derby to be held May 2 at Churchill Downs. While he’s won two of those races, Plutarch, winner of the Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes in February, was declared off the Derby trail with an injury. Plutarch, Baffert said, has recently begun jogging.
Potente, following a debut sprint victory Jan. 31, came back to win the Grade 2 San Felipe on March 7. But Baffert also ran Brant in that race and he finished fifth, perhaps an indication of distance limitations. Brant, the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity winner, has since gotten sick and will miss an intended start in Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland due to illness.
Other 3-year-olds, such as Litmus Test and Desert Gate, haven’t done enough to warrant moving on to the Kentucky Derby, though Desert Gate’s dominant victory in last week’s Hot Spring Stakes will likely earn him a start in the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard.
“These horses, they take you to the Derby, you can’t force anything,” Baffert said. “It’s like watching this March basketball, these schools, they get really good at the end and those are the ones, that’s when it matters. It’s not what you did earlier.”
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This weekend marks the end of the major prep season for the Kentucky Derby, with valuable qualifying points up for grabs in the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass, and Wood Memorial. Yes, there is the next week’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, but that is not expected to have much, if any, bearing on the Derby.
The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby will be the primary focus for Baffert as Potente tries to further define himself in what will be just his third start, and Cherokee Nation will need a top-two finish to even be considered for the race. At Aqueduct, in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, Baffert will give the underachieving Buetane one more shot at securing a spot in the Derby.
Potente’s head victory in the San Felipe Stakes on March 7 did earn him 50 points to the Derby and barring just a terrible performance should get Baffert to a 23rd Kentucky Derby. Potente, a son of super stallion Into Mischief, has only two starts, but Baffert believes the San Felipe, in which he raced behind horses, came wide in the lane, and determinedly ran down 67-1 longshot Robusta was worth more than one race’s experience for the colt, who brought $2.4 million as a yearling.
“I think what he encountered last time was a pretty good schooling,” Baffert said. “He took it all and toughed it out. When they start going a mile and an eighth, that’s when the cream rises to the top. I think distance is going to be his friend.”
Cherokee Nation, a son of Not This Time, took six tries to win his first race. Baffert, saying he was unable to find the proper races for Cherokee Nation, twice ran him in stakes, including last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club and this year’s Robert Lewis. He finished fifth in both races.
Gate issues have hindered the big colt in some of his starts. He broke much better and galloped to a 10-length maiden victory Feb. 27, a race for which he earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure.
“He’s just a big, immature horse and had some little gate issues,” Baffert said. “He wasn’t getting away well, but he’s a big, grand-looking horse now. His last race was like ‘Where did that come from?’ He has to run that race back.”
Cherokee Nation, who brought $1.15 million at auction as a yearling, has only three Derby qualifying points and will need a one-two finish in the Santa Anita Derby to make it to Louisville.
“The pressure is really on Cherokee Nation,” Baffert said. “He needs to get out of the gate and he needs to run his race. If they don’t do it, maybe they’re not ready for it. Good horses find a way to win.”
Buetane, a son of Tiz the Law who as a 2-year-old also brought $1.15 million, finished third in the Southwest at Oaklawn Park in February and had a bottled-up trip when fourth in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs.
“He didn’t get a chance to run,” Baffert said. “It’s a shame he drew the one. I knew it was going to be tough for him.”
Saturday, Buetane breaks from post 11 in an expected 12-horse Wood field.
Baffert recently announced his plan to maintain a stable at Churchill Downs for the spring meet. He figures to be bringing plenty of talented horses for major stakes. This weekend will determine how many, if any, he is bringing for the meet’s biggest race.
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