Kentucky Derby questions: Assessing slow speed figures

Not one of the most recent major prep races produced a winning Beyer Speed Figure of 100. How does that change the way you will handicap the Derby?

It doesn’t. The absence of a high-figure standout only makes it less likely the field will include an overbet favorite a skeptic could bet against. High figures often are overemphasized in races such as the Derby, in which identifying the most likely winner requires more than identifying the horse with the top fig. Generally, the Derby is won by a horse on his way up, rather than one who is simply the fastest of the crop. One obvious recent exception is 2008 winner Big Brown.

In fields such as the 2011 Derby, in which none of the entrants is “fast,” low figures are less of a flaw. That applies this year to Dialed In, whose two route races earned low numbers of 93 and 90. Often, those numbers would be reason to discount his chances. But when the entire field is “slow,” a speed-figure shortfall is less significant.

Many horses can’t reproduce their best speed figures from middle-distance races when asked to go 1 1/4 miles, especially relatively immature 3-year-olds in early spring. Moreover, many horses in this year’s Run for the Roses are within 3 to 5 points of each other going in. Comparing them to each other leads only to the conclusion that, unless Uncle Mo runs back to his best figure at 1 1/16 miles, as many as a dozen contenders are in the ballpark.

It may pay to view the Beyer Figures more as a developmental gauge and seek out favorable patterns of recent improvement. Also, the lack of a speed-figure standout naturally moves such factors as pedigree, pace, and position to the forefront of the handicapping process.

This year’s speed figures illustrate just how wide open the Derby is, and you may need to be more inclusive in your handicapping than in other years. There is only a five-point gap in the winning Beyers of the Louisiana Derby, Spiral, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass, and Arkansas Derby. It will not be as easy to rule out horses as it was in other years, when the Beyer spread in the major preps wasn’t nearly as narrow. This puts a greater premium on other handicapping factors, such as who will or won’t benefit from the likely pace scenario, and who projects to be in line for a good trip. Those factors will separate potential win candidates from the others.

Major preps: Breaking the 100 Beyer barrier

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