WHO’S HOT
Journalism, early favorite for the Kentucky Derby, arrived Tuesday at Churchill Downs and will post his final pre-Derby work over the track. Before he left Santa Anita, Journalism worked an easy half-mile and galloped out an additional furlong on April 19. It was the colt’s first work since he won the Santa Anita Derby on April 5. For Journalism, what seems like light training is standard fare. Journalism has never worked beyond five furlongs. Journalism’s Derby Watch odds have been lowered to 5-2 by Daily Racing Form linemaker David Aragona.
Sovereignty, runner-up in the Florida Derby, remains Derby Watch second choice at 8-1. Japan shipper Luxor Cafe was lowered slightly to 10-1, co-third choice with Tappan Street, the Florida Derby winner. Luxor Cafe has won four straight races in Japan. The only other odds revision among significant Derby Watch runners was Rodriguez. Winner of the Wood Memorial, Rodriguez was raised to 12-1, co-fifth choice with Sandman, the Arkansas Derby winner.
The Kentucky Derby pace should be hot, with four candidates to set the pace – Citizen Bull (reportedly blinkers off), East Avenue, Owen Almighty, and Rodriguez. Two others with pace-pressing speed are American Promise and Admire Daytona. No one will get an easy lead in this year’s Derby.
:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: Top contenders, odds, point standings, news, and more
WHO’S NOT
It was reasonable to skip the Kentucky Derby with Madaket Road. He runs instead in the Pat Day Mile. Madaket Road finished fourth in the Florida Derby. Plans for Built are pending. Fifth in the Louisiana Derby, Built qualifies for the Kentucky Derby on points, but he also is a candidate for the Pat Day Mile. If Built defects from the Kentucky Derby, the next available berth would go to current No. 21-ranked Neoequos, third in the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth.
ON THE BUBBLE
Render Judgment, ranked No. 22, is not likely for the Derby. Baeza, ranked No. 23 on the points list after a wide-trip second in the Santa Anita Derby, remains on the bubble. Baeza needs three defections. As of midweek, two defections are likely – Built and Render Judgment. That would make Baeza the next horse in, after Neoequos, based on reporting by DRF’s David Grening.
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