LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Kentucky Oaks favorite Good Cheer has won all six of her starts by a combined 42 1/2 lengths and has answered plenty of questions along the way. Winning at Churchill Downs? Check. Winning on a sloppy track? Check. Also falling in her favor – connections who know how to win this race and a favorable post position draw.
“Good Cheer is the horse who I don’t see how you don’t make her the heavy, heavy favorite,” said trainer Kenny McPeek, who won last year’s Oaks with Thorpedo Anna and has Take Charge Milady entered this year. “We’ve run against her twice [with different horses], and all we’ve seen is her tail. She’s that much ahead of the rest of the group.”
Indeed, Good Cheer was installed as the 6-5 morning-line favorite for Friday’s 151st running of the Grade 1, $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks – a heavier favorite than Journalism the next day in the Kentucky Derby. The next horses on the board are La Cara at 6-1 and Quietside at 8-1.
“She’s very steady, very easy to be around, always listens to her rider,” said Brad Cox, who trains Godolphin homebred Good Cheer. Cox is looking for his third Oaks win, having won in 2018 with Monomoy Girl and 2020 with Shedaresthedevil.
“She’s perfect to this point, and hopefully we can continue that.”
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Good Cheer comes in off a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 91, earned while winning the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks on March 22. If there is one knock, it is that she does not tower over this field on figures and has not made a huge progression in her numbers from ages 2 to 3. She ran an 86 in three victories at Churchill Downs last year, then an 89 and 91 in her two victories this year.
Good Cheer has easily handled a few of the fillies in this sizeable field already – which stands at 13 after the Thursday morning scratch of Five G – but some of them seem to have moved forward – particularly Quietside, second to the favorite in the Grade 2 Golden Rod last fall at Churchill Downs. She opened her 3-year-old season finishing a traffic-impaired second to Take Charge Milady in the Martha Washington, earning a 75 Beyer Figure. She came back to earn an 86 winning the Grade 3 Honeybee, an effort flattered when runner-up Five G went on to win the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. Most recently, Quietside earned a 91 when prevailing in a long duel with Simply Joking to win the Grade 2 Fantasy – although, to be fair, Simply Joking likely needed the race off an unplanned 10-week break due to illness.
Jockey Jose Ortiz worked Quietside before prior races and breezed her at Keeneland leading up to the Oaks. He told trainer John Ortiz – no relation – that the filly feels like she has come along through the spring as he doesn’t have to ask her to finish her works to the wire or gallop out.
“I think she’s just putting everything together,” John Ortiz said. “She’s matured physically, she’s matured mentally. . . . Obviously, from November to here, you can definitely say she’s improved, but the big question is: Is she the same filly she was in the Fantasy? And [Jose] said, ‘I think she’s better, because I didn’t have to ask her.’ ”
But Good Cheer has given her connections plenty to be cheerful about, too. Her training has been spot-on, with a serious five-furlong drill April 17 that earned a bullet and then a maintenance move a week out from the filly classic.
So, can anything beat her? Cox paused.
“She’s pretty solid,” he said. “I guess if maybe the track was super fast and there was a loose leader or something, but those are things that I can’t control and she can’t control. She’s good, and I think she can overcome a lot.”
La Cara is not likely to be a loose leader, but trainer Mark Casse has made no secret that she will be the leader, coming off a front-running win in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland.
“I know there’s a fair amount of speed, but I’ve already talked to [jockey Dylan Davis] about it,” Casse said. “We’re gonna take no prisoners. She’s gonna come away from there running, and if somebody wants to try to keep up, they can.”
La Cara has pulled focus this week with exceptionally energetic gallops on a track she loves; the filly won the Grade 3 Pocahontas here last September. Casse appears to have her peaking perfectly for the Oaks. After she won the Suncoast on Feb. 8 at Tampa Bay Downs, Casse cut her back to a mile for the Grade 2 Davona Dale on March 1. A not-fully-cranked La Cara ran second, in a race that was designed to give her ideal timing into the Ashland and Oaks.
“She’s just on her game,” Casse said. “You’d probably have a tough time seeing a horse going any better than she is right now. She’s happy.”
Also described as a happy horse this week is the lone West Coast invader, Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks winner Tenma, who has taken to her surroundings.
“Since she’s been here, she’s happy, and happy horses run well,” said Bob Baffert, who returns to the Oaks, which he has won three times, as well as the Derby this year.
Tenma has done little wrong, winning 5 of 6 career starts in California, despite what Baffert describes as less-than-ideal circumstances.
“Her last race, she ran well, but I wasn’t crazy about it,” Baffert said of the Santa Anita Oaks. “The track was sort of deep, and she’s had trouble with it, Santa Anita. But bringing her here, I worked her [Saturday], and I loved what I saw. She’s getting over the track really well. It’s a tough race, but what I saw, I feel better, and I really think the mile and an eighth is gonna suit her well. . . . A lot of fillies in there, you’ve gotta get away from there and get a good spot.”
Tenma, who has dueled for the lead in a few of her races, could be pressing an honest pace. Along with La Cara – from post 7, in midgate – those who have been on or near the lead in their most recent starts include Early On and Simply Joking, who may have their hands forced from posts 1 and 2; lightly raced Virginia Oaks winner Fondly; Anna’s Promise; and even Quietside.
Slightly altering the pace scenario, Five G was scratched from the Oaks after she did not clean up her feed and trainer George Weaver was dissatisfied with her energy level while training, removing a filly who also has been forwardly placed in her races. As she was in post 8, this places La Cara outside most of the other committed speed. Good Cheer drew post 11 under Luis Saez, but horses drawn outside of Five G are to be moved in one slot. Good Cheer is in a prime spot to watch the action develop and be as involved as she needs to be.
Those who would most benefit from a hot pace include Grade 3 Gazelle winner Ballerina d’Oro; Bourbonette Oaks winner Bless the Broken; Busher winner Drexel Hill, the Whit Beckman-trained stablemate to Simply Joking; Take Charge Milady; and Quickick.
Take Charge Milady, runner-up in the Ashland with a good inside run, has been dealing with a foot abscess in her right front coronet band that developed late last week, a minor issue with poor timing. As of Thursday, the filly was still an intended runner, turning in routine gallops both Wednesday and Thursday.
Trainer Will Walden said he is hoping for rain for Bless the Broken, who turned in her best dirt effort when second in the Silverbulletday on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds. He might get his wish. As of Thursday, Louisville’s weather forecast called for a more than 50 percent chance of precipitation for both Thursday and Friday, with a risk of thunderstorms both days.
The Oaks is race 11 of 13 on a card that begins at 11 a.m. Friday, and the filly classic is preceded by six graded stakes. Richest among those is the Grade 1, $1 million La Troienne, which has attracted 2024 Kentucky Oaks winner and reigning Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna. Someone’s name will join hers in the annals on Friday.
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