ARCADIA, Calif. – Betting value is elusive in both early stakes Saturday at Santa Anita, but horseplayers may find appealing options in three late stakes on the California-bred program.
The likely favorite is vulnerable in the $100,000 Fran’s Valentine, race 6. Not that Stay and Scam cannot win the filly-mare turf stakes, but she took a hit at the draw. Stay and Scam got stuck with the outside post in a field of 11. Not good for a mile on turf.
The $125,000 Snow Chief, race 8, is uncharted ground. None of the 10 California-bred 3-year-olds have raced 1 1/8 miles on turf – not runaway dirt-sprint stakes winner Shady Tiger, nor last-out allowance winner Curlin’s Kaos, nor allowance runner-up Two by Four.
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The $125,000 Melair Stakes, race 9, is the most historically formful stakes on Saturday. Melair favorites are 7 for 10 at Santa Anita in the dirt route for 3-year-old fillies. Three-time stakes winner Grand Slam Smile is reliable chalk, facing Safa and stretch-out Roberta’s Love.
The 10-race California-bred card includes heavily favored The Chosen Vron and Kings River Knight in a pair of early $100,000 stakes. The Chosen Vron looms odds-on in the Thor’s Echo, race 3; Kings River Knight is the lone-speed favorite in the Crystal Water, race 4.
From a parimutuel perspective, the second half of the Saturday card is more attractive.
Race 6 is the Fran’s Valentine at a mile on turf, and stakes-winner/graded-placed Stay and Scam would be formidable from a different post. But the past five years in Santa Anita turf miles, posts 9 and out produced just 6.9 percent winners, compared to 13.2 percent for posts 1 through 8.
Stay and Scam drew post 11 under Mario Gutierrez, who must employ a bold strategy and allow Stay and Scam to use her speed to make the lead. Stay and Scam, a front-runner trained by Doug O’Neill, raced in fifth position last out and finished a passive third as the favorite in a Grade 3.
If the top filly is compromised, the race is ripe for an upset by either Carmen Miranda or Tam’s Little Angel. Carmen Miranda, 5 for 18, was claimed last out for $80,000 by Hronis Racing and trainer John Sadler. She finished fourth in the turf sprint.
“We claimed her with the Cal-bred program in mind,” Sadler said. “I thought she was up too close the other day. She’s run good races at a mile.” Juan Hernandez rides Carmen Miranda, who drew the rail and figures for a ground-saving trip just off the speed. Tam’s Little Angel arrives from Northern California in top form, though her best races are on synthetic and dirt.
Race 8 is the Snow Chief Stakes, and trainer Craig Lewis is familiar with the top two contenders. He was the first trainer for Curlin’s Kaos; he is the current trainer Two by Four. Lewis said Curlin’s Kaos was a handful last year before he started. Lewis had him gelded.
“If I knew I’d have to run against him in the Snow Chief, I wouldn’t have cut him,” Lewis joked. Curlin’s Kaos moved to trainer Antonio Garcia before he ran, and has won two of seven. He is 2 for 2 in turf routes. Curlin’s Kaos stretches out another furlong Saturday from a solid win over his main Saturday rival.
Runner-up last out, Two by Four is running farther than his trainer’s early expectations. “Originally, we were thinking he might be a late-running sprinter, but his last race proved different,” Lewis noted. Two by Four ran his final quarter in 23 seconds, compared to the 23.75 final quarter by Curlin’s Kaos.
Saturday in the Snow Chief, it is a close call between the two Clubhouse Ride geldings, while Shady Tiger is the wild card. The fastest horse on numbers, he won his last three starts in sprints, and will be stretching to two turns for the first time.
Race 9 is the Melair Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Steve Specht trains Northern California-based Grand Slam Smile, whose six starts produced four wins and two seconds. She has won three stakes in Southern California.
The main rival for Grand Slam Smile might be Safa, a wide-trip runner-up in a turf allowance last out. A bridesmaid with one win and six seconds from 10 starts, Safa always fires. “I’ve been wanting to see her go a mile on dirt,” trainer Gary Stute said. “The day she broke her maiden she galloped out so strong.”
Regular rider Tiago Pereira regains the mount on Safa.
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