Mon, 04/14/2025 - 10:30

Luke Middlebrook's Hong Kong Selections and Analysis for Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Hong Kong Jockey Club
Wednesday's Happy Valley program features nine races.

Happy Valley Selections
(Wednesday, April 16, 2025)

Race 1: #9 Patch Of Watch, #12 Diamond Soars, #6 Modest Gentleman, #2 Spicy So Smart
Race 2: #8 Hakka Radiance, #10 Management Folks, #2 Serangoon, #3 Capital Legend
Race 3: #10 Iconical, #2 Thesis, #1 Sure Joyful, #6 Amazing Award
Race 4: #2 Romantic Son, #1 Wings Of War, #6 Warriors Dream, #4 Power Koepp
Race 5: #5 Soaring Bronco, #1 Mighty Commander, #3 Sunday’s Serenade, #10 Accolade Start
Race 6: #7 King Miles, #1 Bundle Of Charm, #2 Nucleozor, #6 Crimson Flash
Race 7: #10 Loving Vibes, #2 Know At Heart, #1 Fatal Blow, #8 Glory B
Race 8: #2 Our Lucky Glory, #5 Lucky Planet, #1 Goko Win, #4 Great Spirit
Race 9: #4 Embraces, #8 Lucky Touch, #3 Aestheticism, #7 Highland Rahy

Race 1 - ASTER HANDICAP
#9 Patch Of Watch receives a big jockey upgrade with a senior rider in the saddle for the first time after four runs under an apprentice, as Zac Purton takes over. He’s a fast beginner who should be right up on the pace, and while his best form is over 1200m, he maps favourably here. #12 Diamond Soars has drawn ideally in barrier 3 to suit his on-pace pattern. He hasn’t won for some time but has placed in three of his ten starts this season and remains competitive. #6 Modest Gentleman is suited by the drop back in distance after a fair fourth over 1200m on the all-weather last time. He’ll be hoping for a fast-run race which will give him his chance to finish strongly late. #2 Spicy So Smart holds a strong record in this grade with two wins from three attempts and can’t be ignored even if he lacks form over the minimum trip.

Race 2 - BELLFLOWER HANDICAP
#8 Hakka Radiance was a sound runner-up at this course and distance two starts ago after racing too keenly throughout. Last start he showed a surprise change of tactics when dropping back to 1800m and leading too quickly, fading late into fifth. In a wide-open race he deserves another chance. #10 Management Folks missed the start last time over 2000m at Sha Tin before charging home late into second. He’s a proven course and distance winner and will be running on strongly late. #2 Serangoon has to overcome barrier 11 but won by a length over Management Folks at this course and distance three runs back before two forgettable runs at Sha Tin. Best to overlook those efforts and include him back at the city circuit where he’s best proven. #3 Capital Legend is having his third run since returning to Class 4 while stepping up to an unknown distance, but trainer Caspar Fownes recently pulled off a win with a similar set-up and it wouldn’t surprise to see this runner in the mix.

Race 3 - THISTLE HANDICAP
#10 Iconical is an improving four-year-old and, despite being unplaced in six starts to date, five of those have come over an unsuitable 1200m. He stepped up to 1400m last start at Sha Tin but was drawn widest in barrier 14 and was never much hope from there. He has since trialled strongly, making all in his heat, and with Zac Purton taking the ride from barrier 4, similar tactics could be adopted. #2 Thesis is coming off a fast-finishing fourth over this distance on the all-weather, where he was dictated to by a wide draw. Prior to that, he was a winner and subsequent third-placegetter at this course and distance, so he can bounce back returning to the city circuit. #1 Sure Joyful is one to follow again now that he’s back in Class 4, where he looks to have a class edge on some of these. His last-start seventh was a solid run after drawing wide in gate 11 and flashing home late with a sharp final sectional. #6 Amazing Award is in with a chance having closed in nicely for third in his most recent run here and generally been consistent all season, including his first career win four starts ago.

Race 4 - VIOLET HANDICAP
#2 Romantic Son broke through well two starts ago, but last start he drew wide in barrier 10, was steadied early to find cover before being hampered at the 900m, taken wide and forced to race without cover from the 600m, checking in just under five lengths away in 11th. Put a line through that run and give him another chance. #1 Wings Of War has trialled well since a few excusable efforts and is capable of bouncing back under more favourable conditions. He drew widest last time and was taken to the rear before closing off well into sixth, not beaten far. Prior to that, he was caught wide without cover. #6 Warriors Dream turned in a pass mark on debut with excuses—he blundered at the start and lost ground, settled back and ran on well into eighth, just under three lengths off. He has since won a trial nicely and should be a sharp improver. #4 Power Koepp is interesting on the class rise after a dominant win at the top of Class 4 on his first start for Mark Newnham. He trialled well between runs and this doesn’t look the strongest Class 3, so he’s capable of measuring up.

Race 5 - THE EWO CHALLENGE TROPHY (HANDICAP)
#5 Soaring Bronco gets an ideal draw in barrier 3 where he should receive a perfect run in transit. He backed up his overdue maiden win in Class 5 two starts ago with a fast-finishing second to Top Time, and a repeat of that performance puts him right in this. #1 Mighty Commander returns to Class 4 but has the task of overcoming gate 11. He was successful at this course and trip five runs back before stepping into Class 3 where he held his own with some honest efforts. In a wide-open race with many chances, he remains firmly in the mix. #3 Sunday’s Serenade broke through with purpose last start to shed his maiden tag after several close calls. He’s a progressive four-year-old with more to come, and back-to-back wins look well within reach. #10 Accolade Start rises to a more suitable distance after a string of 1200m runs where he turned in some encouraging efforts. Now well down in the handicap, he shapes as a knockout chance at odds.

Race 6 - VIOLET HANDICAP
#7 King Miles has endured a horrid run of barrier draws this season, drawing no lower than barrier 11 in six of his nine starts. On his first spin around this course and distance last start, he jumped from the outside in barrier 12 and was held up for most of the straight. He was full of running and once clear, closed off well to finish just under four lengths away in eighth. He’s a knockout chance with a clear run. #1 Bundle Of Charm has gone a little over a year between wins but is now on a mark where he can strike. He ran third to Beauty Destiny here two starts ago, which reads well, and barrier 2 gives him the opportunity to enjoy a soft run. #2 Nucleozor has trialled strongly since his close-up ninth on local debut and looks ready to take a good step forward second-up, though barrier 10 isn’t ideal. #6 Crimson Flash should continue to improve with more racing—this is his fifth local start—and he’s been finishing close up in some good races at Sha Tin. His on-pace pattern, with blinkers going on first time, should serve him well around this course.

Race 7 - DIANTHUS HANDICAP
#10 Loving Vibes returns to Happy Valley for his third run around the city track after a pair of strong second-place finishes in decent races at Sha Tin. He’s still on the hunt for a maiden win at start 11 but looks very close to breaking through. #2 Know At Heart is unplaced in five local starts but has turned in some encouraging efforts nonetheless. He will relish the class drop and should be finding his way into the money from barrier 3. #1 Fatal Blow maps well up on the pace from barrier 4. His form tapered off after a maiden win three runs back, though one of those efforts saw him posted wide, and he has trialled well ahead of his return, which gives him claims here. #8 Glory B has been in good form this season with a win and three seconds from eight outings and is not without a chance with Hugh Bowman taking the ride.

Race 8 - DIANTHUS HANDICAP
#2 Our Lucky Glory is on his fourth attempt back in Class 4 and is capable of bouncing back for a win anytime in this grade. Two starts ago he was a narrow runner-up to Tactical Command before a last-start seventh after drawing out in barrier 11. Moving into barrier 2 provides an opportunity to strike. #5 Lucky Planet scored an audacious all-the-way win at Sha Tin last start and the speed map looks firmly in his favour here to repeat a similar feat. #1 Goko Win makes his Class 4 debut and should find this a lot easier than recent outings. Though winless for a little over two years, he has been finishing close up lately which puts him in good stead to be competitive—but barrier 12 is going to make him earn his spot in the finish. #4 Great Spirit notched his second career win last start and, if he’s held his form, remains in the mix.

Race 9 - CHAMOMILE HANDICAP
#4 Embraces returns to Happy Valley after a series of solid performances at Sha Tin, including a last-start second behind Patch Of Cosmo, a promising horse on the rise. He was held up from the 400m until passing the 200m on that occasion, so there was plenty of merit to the run. #8 Lucky Touch is well overdue for a second career win after a string of placings, including his first Class 3 attempt last start where he was beaten only half a length into third. #3 Aestheticism broke his Class 3 duck in fine style last start after threatening to do so on many occasions. Zac Purton remains in the saddle and once again he shapes as a genuine winning chance. #7 Highland Rahy has found career-best form after taking time and a drop in the ratings to find his feet. He returns to Class 3 off back-to-back all-the-way wins at this course and distance in Class 4, and the speed map again appears to favour his chances.