Only in October does the 3-year-old dirt-route set converge with the older dirt-route division, at least in graded stakes competition. So far this year – advantage older horses. Granted, 2025’s best 3-year-old, Sovereignty, got sick and missed the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but in his absence, 4-year-olds swept the first three placings. In the Fayette at Keeneland last month, 5-year-old Hit Show won by a length over 6-year-old Rattle N Roll, and those two return for the latest battle of generations, the Grade 2, $600,000 Clark Stakes on Friday at Churchill Downs.
Hit Show, Rattle N Roll, and First Mission lead the older-horse brigade. Three-year-old Gosger already has tackled elders, finishing a tough-trip third in the Fayette. Three-year-olds Chunk of Gold and Magnitude get their first chance with older stakes rivals.
Also participating in the 1 1/8-mile Clark are two Mike Maker-trained pace factors, Cooke Creek and Willy D’s, neither of whom looks like a contender, and 30-1 shot Who Dey. The featured Clark goes as race 11 of 12, post time set for 5:54 p.m. Eastern.
The age of the horses aside, not winning the Clark is getting old for trainer Brad Cox. Since Leofric eked out a victory in 2018, Cox has gone 8-0-4-2 with Clark runners. In 2023, First Mission finished second by a head, and a year ago Most Wanted was second by three-quarters of a length, defeated by Rattle N Roll.
Hit Show checked in fifth as the 8-5 favorite last year but winds up the 3-1 morning-line choice Friday, a price nobody should rush to take in this competitive spot. Hit Show, who has won exactly zero Grade 1 races in America, managed to take down the $12 million Dubai World Cup this past April, thanks entirely to Forever Young, the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner on Nov. 1, running far below his best.
Until the Fayette, Hit Show’s post-Dubai form failed to impress, but last month – Irad Ortiz Jr. riding for the first time – Hit Show traveled like a different horse, exchanging his typically grinding style for a notably sharp performance. Cox has seen nothing in the morning to suggest Hit Show won’t hold form.
“He’s always good training,” Cox said. “He likes Keeneland, but he likes Churchill, too.”
While First Mission’s third behind Mindframe and Sierra Leone in the Stephen Foster would win the Clark, his two starts since would not. Beaten at 1-5 in the Iselin at Monmouth, First Mission finished a flat fourth Sept. 27 in the Goodwood at Santa Anita, a final try at a first Grade 1 before First Mission goes to stud this winter. Cox didn’t love First Mission’s trip in the Goodwood, where he was taken farther off the pace than usual, but First Mission still should have run better.
Gosger races in blinkers for the first time, trying to break a four-race losing streak since winning the Lexington in April. Nipped in the Preakness by Journalism – who, keep in mind, almost fell at the quarter pole – Gosger was second in the Grade 1 Haskell, failed to handle the Parx racing surface in the Pennsylvania Derby, and lost significant ground on both turns of the Fayette while racing close to a strong pace.
At Keeneland a day earlier, Chunk of Gold, making his third start in blinkers, swamped age-restricted second-level allowance foes, leading and scoring by eight lengths over 1 1/8 miles in what might have been a breakthrough performance.
“That’s what we’re hoping,” trainer Ethan West said. “The two races he’s been on the lead, he’s run in my eyes his best races. I don’t think he’s a one-dimensional horse, but I think he wants to be a free-running horse.”
Still, it’s Magnitude who possesses the most upside among the sophomores, and if you wanted to make a leap, you might compare Magnitude to Gun Runner, who won the 2016 Clark as a 3-year-old before going on to win Horse of the Year in 2017.
“That’s the dream scenario,” said Steve Asmussen, trainer of both horses.
Magnitude, earlier this year, finished third in the Travers and second in the Pennsylvania Derby. So did Gun Runner. Magnitude lit up Fair Grounds on Feb. 15 winning the Risen Star Stakes with an elite 108 Beyer Speed Figure but came out of the race injured. He got to a 104 Beyer coming back from that injury in the Iowa Derby, took a step back in the Travers, and in the Pennsylvania Derby showed a new dimension, fighting through a dirt-eating, traffic-filled journey. Maybe Magnitude, like Gun Runner, rises to the top at age 4. Maybe that begins Friday.
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