We’re down to the Final Four in the 2024-25 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, and please pardon all the chalk dust.

It has, by most any measure, been one of the top-heavy, chalky tournaments in Big Dance history.

All four No. 1 seeds are in the national semifinals for only the second time (2008) since seeding began in 1979. And point-spread favorites of 8-plus points have won all 22 games outright, matching the record from the 2007 NCAA tourney. 

But will the favorites continue their march in April with the national semifinals on tap Saturday in San Antonio? We examine the odds and trends below.

Meanwhile, new customers taking advantage of our best March Madness sports betting promos can collect up to a combined $6,400 in bonuses.

March Madness Final Four odds: Florida, Duke are national semifinal favorites

Fittingly, the Final Four tips off with an all-Southeastern Conference affair as Florida (34-4) and Auburn (32-5) meet to determine the last team standing from the league which received a record 14 Big Dance bids. The Tigers won the SEC regular season championship while the Gators captured the SEC tournament title. 

The health/availability of Auburn forward/first-team All-American Johni Broome, who suffered an elbow injury in the second half of Sunday’s regional final win over Michigan State, looms large in this rematch of Florida’s 90-81 road win Feb. 8.

In Saturday night’s second semi, it’s Wooden Award-favorite Cooper Flagg and Atlantic Coast Conference powerhouse Duke (35-3) taking on Big 12 behemoth Houston (34-4). 

Following is a glance at Saturday’s Final Four schedule and game odds for the matchups in San Antonio’s Alamodome:

• > South 1-seed Auburn vs. West 1-seed Florida, 6:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
• > East 1 seed Duke vs. Midwest 1-seed Houston, 8:49 p.m. (CBS)

 

 

Florida, which has won 10 straight and 16 of its last 17 games outright, owns Division I’s fifth-best against-the-spread record at 27-11 (.711). That includes a 24-9 mark as a favorite.

The Gators, however, are the only Final Four team with a below-.500 ATS mark in the NCAA tourney at 1-3.

Auburn, meanwhile, is 20-16-1 ATS on the season, but is 3-1 in the NCAA tourney and 2-1 as an underdog on the season.

Duke owns the nation’s 12th-best ATS record at 25-13 (.658), including a 24-13 mark as a favorite and 3-1 in the Big Dance.

It’ll face Houston, which is 20-17-1 ATS on the season, including 1-0 as an underdog and 2-1-1 in winning the Midwest Region.

March Madness Final Four odds: Duke is strong title favorite

The semifinal winners will meet at 8:50 p.m. ET, Monday, April 7 at the Alamodome in the national championship game on CBS.

And, as you can see by the national championship odds below, Duke is a strong favorite — even among a stacked field of fellow 1-seeds.

And they’re historically strong 1-seeds at that with all four teams — Duke (+39.62), Houston (36.49), Florida (+36.05) and Auburn (+35.25) — ranking among analyst Ken Pomeroy’s top-10 teams (in net efficiency) since he began tracking data and compiling ratings in the 1996-97 season. 

Duke has won 15 straight and 31 of its last 32 games overall. And on the road to San Antonio, the Blue Devils have posted a tourney-best 23.5-point average margin of victory. 

Coach Jon Scheyer’s squad will now try to follow through with the sixth national championship in the program’s history.

Current tourney trends are in the favorite’s favor.

Per BetIQ, favorites have won all 12 games (7-5 ATS) since the Sweet 16 tipped off last Thursday, marking the first time that has happened since Big Dance odds have been tracked.

March Madness bettors have taken notice.

At DraftKings Sportsbook, Duke has attracted 30 percent of its national championship futures handle — a full 5 percent more than the other three Final Four participants (Florida 12%, Auburn 7% and Houston 6%) combined.

Duke title money is piled even higher at BetMGM Sportsbook with the Devils accounting for a full 40.5 percent of the market’s total handle.

In other words, clear rooting-interest lines have been drawn for this coming weekend.

“The tournament has gone in the bettors’ favor with favorites consistently winning,” BetMGM taking manager Christian Cipollini said in a Monday news release. “The sportsbook is cheering against a Duke-Florida final.”