Upsets are one of the most-anticipated occurrences of March Madness with the major ones taking their place in NCAA tournament lore.

So who the most likely David — and corresponding Goliath — candidates for the 2025 Big Dance? We’ve examined some current / recent NCAA men’s tourney seed trends to zero in on some possible opening weekend surprises as we winnow things down to the Sweet 16.

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NCAA tournament trend: A First Four team has advanced to second round in 12 of the last 13 tourneys

That’s a real ray of hope for the likes of San Diego State, North Carolina, Alabama State, St. Francis, American, Mount St. Mary’s, Texas or Xavier.

In particular, keep an eye on which two teams survive the 11-seed matchups in Dayton — Aztecs vs. Tar Heels and Longhorns vs. Musketeers — as the 11s have won four more than they’ve lost (22-18) against 6-seeds in the first round over the last 10 tournaments. 

Moreover, an 11-seed has defeated a 6-seed in the first round in 19 consecutive seasons going back through 2005, and an 11-seed has reached the Sweet 16 in eight of the last 10 tourneys.

Ole Miss (vs. UNC-SDSU winner), Missouri (vs. Drake), BYU (vs. VCU) and Illinois (vsd. Texas-Xavier winner) are the No. 6 seeds who should be on urgent upset alert.

 

NCAA tournament trend: At least one top-4 seed has gone down in the first round in 15 of the last 16 Big Dances

And most likely it will be a No. 3 or 4 seed falling by the wayside.

No. 1 seeds have gone 154-2 (.987) against 16-seeds in the first round since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, And No. 2 seeds are 145-11 (.929) against 15s in the round of 64 over that same span.  

So here the here the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds who need to be especially aware this Thursday and Friday:

• > 3-seeds: Iowa State ( vs. Lipscomb), Texas Tech (vs. UNC-Wilmington), Wisconsin (vs. Montana), Kentucky (vs. Troy)
• > 4-seeds: Texas A&M (vs. Yale), Maryland (vs. Grand Canyon), Arizona (vs. Akron), Purdue (vs. High Point)

 

NCAA tournament trend: A 12-seed has defeated a 5-seed in 33 of the last 39 tourneys

Ah, yes, you knew the storied 12-vs.-5 upset was going to pop up here sooner or later.

Since the Big Dance expanded in 1985, No. 5 seeds have won more than a third of their Round 1 matchups against No. 12s, going 55-101 during that span.

Last March, a pair of 12s (Grand Canyon and James Madison) defeated St. Mary’s and Wisconsin, respectively, in the first round.

So which 12-seed(s) will spring surprises this year?

The candidates: UC San Diego (vs. Michigan), Colorado State (vs. Memphis), Liberty (vs. Oregon) and McNeese (vs. Clemson).

UC San Diego, of the Big West Conference, and the Mountain West’s CSU enter the tourney with two of the nation’s longest current win streaks at 15 and 10 straight games, respectively.

And the Rams are 2.5-point favorites over Memphis, so would that technically count as an upset?

NCAA tournament trend: A double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in (fittingly) 16 straight tourneys

And it’s been an occurrence in 37 of the 39 Big Dances since tourney expansion in 1985.

Last March, it was 11th-seeded N.C. State continuing the trend. The surprising Wolfpack, in fact, wound up advancing all the way to the Final Four before bowing out against eventual national runner-up Purdue.

The seasons prior, 15th-seeded Princeton (2023) and Saint Peter’s (2022), 11th-seeded Michigan (’22) and Iowa State (’22) and 10th-seeded Miami (’22) upheld the tradition by making it to the regional semifinals.

As aforementioned, keep an eye on this year’s 11-seeds as one has advanced to to the Sweet 16 in eight of the last 10 tournaments.