The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Sweet 16 is here with eight regional semifinals matchups spread out over Thursday and Friday night.
It’s a top-heavy Sweet 16 with only one double-digit seed and a record-low four conferences — the four top high majors at that — represented.
Below we preview the Thursday and Friday night matchups, including the current best-value odds for each contest. Then we round things out with a pair of underdog upset picks from respected ESPN analyst Jay Bilas from his appearance earlier this week on The Closing Number podcast with Eli Hershkovich at our partner site TheLines.com.
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March Madness Sweet 16 odds: Thursday tips off with East, West Regional semis
East: No. 6 seed BYU (26-9) vs. No. 2 Alabama (27-8), 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS) in Newark, N.J.
The Crimson Tide’s weakness is on the defensive end of the floor, and they will face a challenge in the Cougars’ ninth-rated offense, according to analytics guru Ken Pomeroy.
West: No. 4 Maryland (27-8) vs. No. 1 Florida (32-4), 7:39 p.m. (TBS, truTV) in San Francisco
The Gators are on a serious roll, having won 13 of their last 14 games overall, but they’re the only 0-2 against-the-spread Sweet 16 team and they’re facing the Maryland Crab Five riding the momentum of Derik Queen’s game-winning buzzer-beater in Round 2.
East: No. 4 Arizona (24-12) vs. No. 1 Duke (33-3), 9:39 p.m. (CBS) in Newark
Can the Wildcats’ Caleb Love, who scored a game-high 28 points in North Carolina’s 81-77 win over Duke in the 2022 Final Four, shock Cooper Flagg and the national title-favorite Blue Devils who easily lead the NCAA tourney field with a 33.5-point average margin of victory so far?
West: No. 10 Arkansas (22-13) vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (27-8), 10:09 p.m. in San Francisco
Coach John Calipari’s SEC Razorbacks are the Sweet 16’s de facto Cinderella as the lone surviving double-digit seed, and they will be looking to spring a third straight upset against JT Toppin and the potent Red Raiders who boast Pomeroy’s fifth-most efficient offense.
March Madness Sweet 16 odds: Friday features South, Midwest semifinals
South: No. 6 Ole Miss (24-11) vs. No. 2 Michigan State (29-6), 7:09 p.m. (CBS) in Atlanta
The SEC Rebels blistered 3-seed Iowa State with a season-best 58.2-percent shooting performance in the second round, but the Sweet 16’s worst-rebounding team is facing a tough matchup in Tom Izzo’s defensive-minded, glass-cleaning Spartans.
Midwest: No. 3 Kentucky (24-11) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (29-7), 7:39 p.m. (TBS, truTV) in Indianapolis
The Wildcats connected on 24-of-48 3-pointers, going 12-of-24 in each contest — in sweeping the Volunteers during the regular season, but the second seed is a solid favorite in this SEC rubber match in Indy.
South: No. 5 Michigan (27-9) vs. No. 1 Auburn (30-5, 9:39 p.m. (CBS) in Atlanta
Johni Broome and the No. 1-overall-seeded Tigers take on the upset-minded Wolverines, who have won five straight overall, including the Big Ten tournament title.
Midwest: No. 4 Purdue (24-11) vs. No. 1 Houston (32-4), 10:09 p.m. (TBS, truTV) in Indianapolis
The Boilermakers will have the homecourt edge playing in nearby Indy, but coach Kelvin Sampson’s battle-tested Cougars boast Pomeroy’s top-ranked defense to go along with the nation’s most-accurate 3-point shooting (39.8%) and the 11th-best offensive-rebounding percentage (36.6).
March Madness Sweet 16 preview: Jay Bilas’ upset picks
BYU +5.5 vs. Alabama
“Because neither BYU or Alabama are great defensive teams, I think this one’s going to be a track meet,” Bilas said on the The Closing Lines podcast. “… (Alabama leading scorer) Mark Sears has not shot the ball well over his last five or six games … (and) I think BYU can beat them.”
Ole Miss +3.5 vs. Michigan State
“Ole Miss is an interesting group,” Bilas said. “They don’t, in my view, do anything great … but they do everything well. … Michigan State is really good, but they’re not intimidating. … (And) Ole Miss isn’t going to be scared, after an SEC slate.”