Final declarations for the Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday at York Racecourse, Day Two of the Ebor Festival, hadn’t been made at press time Monday. But the antepost market set by British bookmakers suggests the result is a foregone conclusion.
Minnie Hauk – a winner of the Oaks at Epsom Downs and the Irish Oaks in her last two starts, 3 for 3 at age 3, and a four-time winner in five career starts – traded Monday at odds of about 4-11. Taking a price lower than 1-2 for a horse in a race three days hence suggests that the horse is something close to a cinch.
Beyond Minnie Hauk’s gaudy record, the filly will be part of a short field. Only six fillies and mares remained in the race as of Monday, and Aidan O’Brien trains four of them, including Minnie Hauk. O’Brien’s others are Bedtime Story, Garden of Eden, and Whirl, and Whirl’s odds of about 10-1 on Monday strongly suggested she won’t be running. Minnie Hauk edged Whirl by a neck in the Oaks, and Whirl went on to a comfortable win over older horses in the Group 1 Pretty Polly and a five-length laugher, again over older foes, in the Group 1 Nassau at Goodwood.
Reports suggest O’Brien will withdraw Whirl from the Yorkshire Oaks and instead run her at Longchamp on Sept. 7 in the Prix Vermeille.
The Yorkshire Oaks is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series, offering the winner automatic fees-paid entry into the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and travel expenses to Del Mar. The race has proven to be a key prep for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, a race to which Minnie Hauk isn’t nominated and would have to be supplemented.
The co-eighth choice in early Arc betting, at odds of 25-1, 4-year-old filly Estrange also remained in the Yorkshire Oaks as of Monday. Two for two this season and 4 for 5 in her career, Estrange will not start if the York course continues to be rated good-to-firm, trainer David O’Meara said. And that means Estrange probably isn’t running, since the local forecast calls for no more than a 20 percent chance of rain before Thursday’s card.
O’Brien figures to run either Bedtime Story or Garden of Eden. Bedtime Story has hit a higher rating than Garden of Eden, peaking with a second in the French Oaks, but Garden of Eden might better suit 1 1/2 miles. Garden of Eden easily won the Group 2 Ribblesdale over 1 1/2 miles at Royal Ascot before failing to handle a heavy course in the Aug. 3 German Oaks at Dusseldorf.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.