ARCADIA, Calif. – A maiden winner with a glossy pedigree and unlimited potential might just be the best horse running Friday at Santa Anita. Hope springs eternal.
Quick Brown Fox, however, also typifies challenges in California racing. The filly runs in the smallest field on the opening day of the spring meet – a five-runner dirt route that is race 6. Quick Brown Fox would be worth backing at 3-1 program odds. The price might be wishful thinking.
“I’ve got high hopes,” trainer Richard Mandella said. “If you watch the [turf sprint] she won, she was kind of fumbling on the grass. If she’d have gotten beat, you’d have said she didn’t really like it. She trains on dirt like a real horse. I think this [dirt route] is what she wants.”
Quick Brown Fox, a 4-year-old filly sired by Justify and produced by multiple Grade 1 route winner Bast, meets stretch-out program favorite Seismic Beauty and eight-win veteran Jubilant Joanie in the dirt mile, an entry-level allowance for fillies and mares.
The co-feature on Friday is race 7, a second-level allowance turf sprint for fillies and mares with speedballs Pushiness and Kissed by Fire. If they get in each other’s way, the race could set up for off-the-pace contenders Ma Rae’s Girl and Visually.
Santa Anita reopens Friday after a one-week break between winter and spring meets. California racing struggles for attention this time of year, when the focus shifts to the Triple Crown and high purses are offered at Midwest and Eastern racetracks. Many top horses from Santa Anita will leave town, including a high-profile stablemate of Quick Brown Fox also trained by Mandella.
Kopion dazzled in a pair of seven-furlong stakes this winter – the Grade 1 La Brea, followed by a 110-Beyer Speed Figure scorcher in the Grade 2 Santa Monica. A superficial injury curtailed her campaign, but she has resumed a regular work pattern and will soon head to Churchill Downs for the Grade 1, $1 million Derby City Distaff on May 3.
Others shipping out include undefeated Grade 1 winner Cavalieri, nominated to the Derby City Distaff and Grade 1, $1 million La Troienne Stakes, along with Kentucky Derby candidates led by Santa Anita Derby one-two finishers Journalism and Baeza. Santa Anita Oaks winner Tenma is a candidate for the Kentucky Oaks. It’s an annual challenge for Santa Anita racing secretary Jason Egan to entice local runners to stay local.
“It’s well documented the purse discrepancy between here and Kentucky is an issue,” Egan said. “Is the lure of prize money elsewhere strong? Sure. Does it hurt our stakes program? Yes.”
Spring highlights at Santa Anita include a pair of Grade 1 turf races May 26 – the Shoemaker Mile, and Gamely for fillies and mares. A five-stakes program for California-breds is scheduled for May 24; the spring stakes program is turf-heavy – 17 on turf, 9 on dirt.
The season’s first 2-year-old race is scheduled for May 2, but the cessation of year-round racing in Northern California leaves a void in the division. In previous years, 2-year-olds could run in stakes on the fair circuit. This year, the next opportunity for winners will be late July at Del Mar.
Buoyed by an influx of horses from Northern California, the Santa Anita horse population exceeds 1,800. San Luis Rey Downs and Los Alamitos also have more horses than previous years.
Yet despite an uptick in field size during the Santa Anita winter meet – 7.56 per race compared to 7.08 the previous winter – favorites ran amok. Favorites won 46 percent overall, and 49 percent on dirt. One reason was the unusually high win rate of favorites in races tailored or restricted to horses from Northern California. In those races, favorites fired at a 54 percent clip (33 of 61).
Egan acknowledged the peculiarity. “It’s counter-intuitive – your field size is up a half-horse [from the previous winter meet] but your favorite’s win percent is higher.”
Race conditions for the spring meet could change gradually as Northern California runners transition to Southern California. One example is statebred $12,500 maiden-claiming races open to all runners, rather than restricted to horses previously based in Northern California.
Opening weekend stakes begin Saturday with the Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Maria for fillies and mares. Richi and Splendora lead the 1 1/16-mile dirt race. Sunday, multiple stakes winners Endlessly and King of Gosford meet in the Grade 3, $100,000 American Stakes at a mile on turf.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.