The comeback kids are alive and well after Game 1 of the NBA Finals thanks to Tyrese Haliburton.
The Indiana Pacers, who would become the biggest underdogs to ever win the NBA Finals if they win three of the next six games, stunned the Oklahoma City Thunder as 9.5-point underdogs with yet another against-all-odds victory in the series opener. Haliburton sealed the deal with a pull-up jumper with 0.3 seconds remaining after the Pacers trailed by as many as 15 points in the fourth quarter of the road matchup.
It was the only time the Pacers led during the entire game.
Shock and awe
Indysportslegends.com's Tyler Smith pointed out on X that the Pacers have won games with win probabilities of 0.3, 2.1, 2.6, and 4.1, all during these playoffs. That can be expressed as 0.000006716%, or a one-in-14.9 million chance.
Haliburton told ESPN that it's par for the course.
“We’ve just had to figure out how to win in so many different ways all year, past two years. So many weird, different ways. Really proud of this group. We’re a resilient group.”
The result was a massive shock for many NBA sports bettors, though most bettors in Indiana probably enjoyed a windfall.
Leading sportsbooks FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM reported “sharp” money – or a higher percent of money wagered than ticket count – on the Thunder’s spread.
A BetMGM user on Wednesday night dropped a $1.05 million wager on the Thunder to win the Finals at -700 odds. That bet would pay $150,000 if OKC can capture its first championship and deliver for the NBA betting public.
The series is only 14.3% over (if it goes seven games), and the Thunder are down to -350 to win the series. That still gives them a 77.8% implied chance to capture the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Pacers still heavy underdogs
The Game 1 script was mostly more of the same for both teams. The Thunder jumped out to an early lead, maintained separation, and opened up a 15-point gap in the middle of the final quarter.
The Pacers' script kicked in with 9:42 remaining, when they went on a 32-16 run to close the night.
Indy improbably made its comeback despite committing 25 turnovers, including an NBA Finals-record 19 in the first half, and attempting 16 fewer field goals than the Thunder.
They also did it in OKC’s building, where the Thunder have outscored opponents by 24.7 points per 100 possessions during the playoffs.
The Pacers finished the game with a +62.9 net rating during the clutch, defined as games in which the final score is within five points in the final five minutes. For context, the Thunder led the NBA in regular-season net rating (+12.7), and the Washington Wizards finished last (-12.2).
That means that when the money was on the table, the Pacers were about five times better than the regular-season Thunder, and OKC was about five times worse than the Wizards.
The Pacers are still undefeated in Games 1 and 2 in the postseason. Despite their repeated ability to prove themselves, they were installed as 11-point underdogs in Game 2.
Indy leads all playoff teams with a record of 12-5 (70.6%) against the spread. OKC is 7-10 (41.2%) but 6-3 (66.7%) ATS at home.
BetMGM has the Thunder at +275 to win the series.