Mother Nature could negate Tiz a Melody’s distinct advantage in the $75,000 Green Carpet Stakes at Belterra Park on Sunday.
The 1 1/16-mile race for Ohio-bred 3-year-olds is scheduled for turf, and Tiz a Melody owns a win and a close second while facing open stakes company on grass in Texas. His eight opponents in the Green Carpet have a combined total of just one turf race, a third-place finish against maiden claimers.
But with scattered thunderstorms in the forecast for Cincinnati both Saturday and Sunday, there’s a good chance that the Green Carpet will get transferred to the main track. That probably would mean that Tiz a Melody, who has raced exclusively on turf, would scratch, elevating the chances of Cake Pop and Tough It Up.
Cake Pop easily won the 6 1/2-furlong Tall Stack at Belterra earlier this month. Tough It Up captured the Best of Ohio Juvenile in his lone start going two turns last fall at Mahoning Valley.
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Green Carpet, Race 7
KEY CONTENDERS
Tiz a Melody, by Tizway
Last 3 Beyers: 74-74-65
◗ He will be an odds-on favorite while making his first start against statebreds if the race remains on turf after winning the El Joven at Retama Park last fall and finishing second in the Texas Heritage at Sam Houston in February.
Decadent Doc, by Big Brown
Last 3 Beyers: 58-58-57
◗ He was third in a 12-horse field while making his turf debut at Sam Houston in January. Since then, he has been entered twice in turf events that were moved to the main track, including a runner-up performance locally going 1 1/16 miles on May 5.
Hansenation, by Hansen
Last 3 Beyers: 63-65-65
◗ The two best races of his career came going two turns, one on Turfway Park’s Polytrack and the other in the mud at Mahoning Valley. He’s not particularly well bred for turf, so his connections probably would prefer to see the race wind up on dirt.
Tough It Up, by Lemon Drop Kid
Last 3 Beyers: 63-60-58
◗ The 6 1/2 furlongs of the Tall Stack may have been too short for him. Expect an improved performance going long in the second start of his form cycle.
◗ His trainer, Tom Drury, is 3 for 7 at the meet.
Cake Pop, by Notional
Last 3 Beyers: 74-61-57
◗ Trainer Michael Lauer is just 1 for 33 with last-out winners switching from sprints to routes, and Cake Pop’s first two route tries weren’t great.
Strike Your Light, by Majestic Warrior
Last 3 Beyers: 66-47-54
◗ Outperformed uncoupled stablemate Tough It Up by running second in the Tall Stack. He, too, probably would prefer dirt over turf.