HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – All eyes will be on Rated by Merit on Saturday at Gulfstream Park when the exciting 2-year-old prospect puts his unblemished record on the line as the overwhelming favorite against five seemingly overmatched rivals in the $200,000 Affirmed Stakes.
The seven-furlong Affirmed is the second leg of the open division of the Florida Sire Series and highlights an excellent 12-race program that includes the Affirmed’s filly counterpart, the $200,000 Susan’s Girl, along with the $100,000 Gil Campbell Memorial Handicap.
Rated by Merit opened his career with a pair of one-sided and well-graded victories, both going six furlongs. A homebred son of Battalion Runner trained by Michael Yates for Vinnie Viola’s St. Elias Stable, Rated by Merit earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure winning his maiden by 9 3/4 lengths on July 13. He returned to dominate the opening leg of the Sire Series, the Dr. Fager, by 6 1/4 lengths while posting a 93 Beyer in his second start.
Those Beyer Figures are currently the fourth and sixth highest posted by a juvenile in North America in 2024.
After contemplating their options following the Dr. Fager, the connections of Rated by Merit opted to bypass the temptation of trying their budding star in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, opting instead to take the more conservative route of keeping Rated by Merit home and with restricted company for the time being. The 1 1/16-mile In Reality on Nov. 30 is the next logical step if all goes well Saturday.
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“I’m really looking forward to Saturday and then stretching him out around two turns in the next one, which is plan A at the moment,” said Yates. “He’s been training really well since his last start and I feel mentally he’s really improved and is becoming more professional.
“So stretching out in distance, at least in my mind, should not be any problem for him at all.”
Rated by Merit has worked twice since the Dr. Fager, including five furlongs in 59.76 seconds, going easily throughout, here on Oct. 6.
“The weather kind of moved us a little further out on the work tab than I’d have liked but I really didn’t know what to expect, so we took the opportunity to work him on a fast track when we had it,” Yates explained. “He puts a lot into his daily gallops, so it’s really not an issue.”
Rated by Merit went postward 2-5 in the Dr. Fager and figures to be that price or even shorter in the Affirmed. But Yates said he doesn’t really feel the pressure of sending out such an overwhelming favorite.
“I’d rather be 2-5 than 10-1, and if he goes out there and runs like he has in his first two starts, I think we should be in good shape,” Yates said.
Neoequos, Classic of Course, and Zizka, who finished second, third, and seventh, respectively, while strung out far behind Rated by Merit in the Dr. Fager, will try him once again. Lou and Big Paradise, both coming off maiden wins, complete the field.
Neoequos contested the early pace with Rated by Merit before giving way gradually through the stretch, earning a career-best 79 Beyer despite finishing more than six lengths back at the wire. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. was realistic about his chances in the rematch.
“Obviously, on paper, we cannot beat the favorite, but we’ll try again and at least this time we’ll be able to break outside him and get a stalking trip,” Joseph said. “We’re kind of running looking to be second but hoping to win.”
The shoe will be on the other foot as far as Joseph is concerned in the Susan’s Girl when he sends out the heavy favorite, undefeated R Morning Brew, who like Rated by Merit, has been perfect while virtually unchallenged in two career starts. She won her maiden by 4 1/2 lengths over a wet track on Aug. 9 before returning to capture the six-furlong Desert Vixen by 5 1/2 lengths four weeks later.
“She surprised us a bit the first time because she’s never really showed that kind of speed in the morning,” Joseph said. “We were always thinking the longer the better for her, so the extra distance Saturday shouldn’t be an issue, although she’s probably going to have to run a similar race or even better than the last one to win again.”
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Wiggle An’ Wine and Win N Your In, the second- and third-place finishers in the Desert Vixen, will look for a measure of revenge on Saturday.
Wiggle An’ Wine contested the early pace with R Morning Brew, and while no match in the end, did well to hold on for second. She finished three-quarters of a length in front of Win N Your In, the 1-2 favorite who sat a perfect stalking trip but came up empty after joining the leaders briefly while fanning widest into the stretch.
◗ A field of seven led by last year’s winner, Octane, will contest the one-mile Gil Campbell. The lineup also includes Loco Abarrio and Big Martini, who finished second and fourth, respectively, in the seven-furlong Benny the Bull Stakes on Aug. 24.
Octane rallied to a 1 3/4-length victory over Big and Classy in the 2023 Campbell as a prelude to his three-quarter-length triumph in the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap early last winter at Oaklawn Park. Octane has switched barns since finishing a disappointing seventh as the favorite in the Smile Sprint on July 6 and will start for trainer Jorge Delgado for the first time on Saturday.
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