Aqueduct | Race 10 | Post Time 3:37 p.m. (ET)
The two likely favorites in this Cigar Mile are drawn outside and both possess early speed. There will probably be a little more intention to send Phileas Fogg (#6) to the lead, since he's generally run his best races from the front end. He's the class of this field based on his form over the past several months, but all of those races came around two turns. He did handle a one-turn mile over this course just over a year ago, but not at this level. Gustavo Rodriguez is adding a set of blinkers to try to get him back to the winner's circle, but this is not a strong move for the barn. Rodriguez is 3 for 38 ($0.53 ROI) adding blinkers over the last 5 years, according to DRF Formulator.
I still prefer Phileas Fogg to main rival Bishops Bay (#7), who has generally beaten slightly weaker company in his recent victories. He is remarkably consistent, only finishing outside the exacta once in 12 starts, and that was at the Grade 1 level. He did have a minor excuse in that loss two back, unable to make the lead and buried inside every step of the way. Yet I wasn't terribly impressed by his subsequent win in the local prep for this.
The presence of longshot Mika (#2) has to be considered since he could have an impact on the two aforementioned contenders in the early stages. This Mike Maker trainee is a need-the-lead type who figures to be gunned to the front from the inside. That could quicken the pace of this race and make things tougher on those two favorites.
I'm hopeful that enough pace will develop to set up for Crazy Mason (#4). This closing sprinter did improve significantly when his connections cut him back in distance after he wasn't progressing in route races earlier in his career. However, he may have the right toolset to handle going longer now that he's matured. He just get so badly outrun in the early stages of his sprint races, especially going as short as 6 furlongs, such as in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby earlier this year. He's been at his best going 7 furlongs, a distance over which he won the Grade 2 Carter and placed in the Grade 1 Forego. A one-turn mile isn't so different from that extended sprint distance, and his connections have justifiably been targeting this race since the summer. I believe he's as likely to win this race as anyone, and he figures to be the third choice