Aqueduct | Race 10 | Post Time 4:09 p.m. (ET)
Beach Bomb (#3) is obviously the horse to beat in this Long Island, but I am getting a little concerned that she hasn't won a race since early in the season at Gulfstream. She's a horse who had previously utilized her early speed as an advantage, but last time she lacked the gate speed to get forward even as Javier Castellano hustled her early. She still ran on well while advancing outside without cover much of the way. If she repeats that effort, she's a win candidate, but I'm not keen to take too short a price.
No Show Sammy Jo (#1) is one alternative to consider, since she nearly won this race last year and was pretty unlucky in defeat. The pace never really materialized, and she was flying late despite going wide on the final turn. The problem is that she hasn't really reproduced that effort ever since, and she hasn't run particularly fast in any of her recent starts. I do like her stretching back out in distance, and she may finally be an enticing price again for the first time since this race last year.
The 2024 Long Island's third-place finisher Immensitude (#6) will be a logical alternative for many handicappers due to the perception that she's the lone speed. The TimeformUS Pace Projector suggests that, and I won't be surprised when she's able to control up front. I'm just not convinced that she's quite good enough to beat this field even in her current form. She took advantage of a very favorable pace setup last time going shorter, and generally hasn't been in top form this season.
The horse I want out of that Oct. 2 race won by Immensitude is actually the fourth-place finisher Grayosh (#2). She has admittedly been a disappointment this season, going 0 for 5 and failing to build up on her winning form from the Grade 2 Lake Placid last year. Yet I think there are some things to like about her coming into this spot. She was compromised by the slow pace last time, and finished best of all once asked for a kick in the final quarter mile. Prior to that she had raced at Kentucky Downs and was hampered by a similarly slow pace in the Matchmaker. I think Chad Brown and Flavien Prat have figured out that she's best when they hold her up and produce once late burst. She may have more success with that style stretching out, since progeny of Yoshida seem to appreciate added ground, and her second dam is a stamina influence, having won going as far as 12 furlongs in Europe.