Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 3:39 p.m. (ET)
Ohana Honor (#4) looks like a deserving favorite in the Knickerbocker, dropping in class out of a series of tougher races. He will be seeking his first ever stakes victory, but this horse has held his own against much stronger graded stakes foes over the last couple of seasons. He has concentrated on marathon races recently, but it's not clear that he's really any better over those distances. He arguably ran the best race of his career when going just half a furlong farther than today's 1 1/8 miles in last year's Grade 1 Manhattan. It might seem like he disappointed as the favorite when last seen at Keeneland, but he was pressing an honest pace that took its toll on the leaders. The only problem is that he has popular connections in his corner and likely won't be much of a price.
Main rival Air Recruit (#7) is far more lightly raced. He missed all of his 3-year-old season and has made just three starts as a 4-year-old since since returning from a lengthy layoff this summer. He won his first two starts back before disappointing at Kentucky Downs, but it's easy to excuse that effort since he was caught in traffic for much of the stretch. He has dangerous tactical speed and could play out as the pacesetter.
The horse I want to bet is Naptown (#8), who has been in the best form of his career ever since getting gelded back in March. He's won 4 of 8 starts since then and appears to be doing better than ever for Jose Magana, who claimed him back in June. He got up for fourth in the Woodbine Mile behind subsequent Breeders' Cup Mile winner Notable Speech back in September. Since then, he's settled for minor awards in a couple of allowance races, but he's run better than the results suggest on both occasions. He was very wide throughout at Keeneland on Oct. 8, and last time he was compromised by a slow pace before finishing best of all at Laurel. He picks up Manny Franco for this and figures to be a square price for a low-profile barn.