Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 2:10 p.m. (ET)
This 2-year-old maiden special weight features just three horses with experience, all of whom rate as contenders. Hedge Ratio (#1) might go favored given the presence of Flavien Prat, who has been a magnet for wagering support in recent weeks at Aqueduct. This horse did seem to appreciate the switch to dirt last time after putting in a dull effort in his debut on grass. He traveled well behind the leaders before getting outkicked by the top two finishers, both of whom are horses who could have stakes potential. I'm just a little confused by this turnback in distance since this colt is bred to go longer. The rail draw could complicate his trip since he doesn't seem quick enough to get forward position.
Dark Assault (#10) possesses superior tactical speed and drew best of all in the outside slot with a long run to the first turn. He just lacks the upside of the other two experienced options. He's already gotten three races under his belt and his progression seemed to stall last time when he faded to finish third in a similar spot.
I prefer Our Magical Moon (#8), who returns from a brief freshening to make his first start since the summer at Saratoga. He ran on turf in his debut, but Mark Casse is known to be a trainer who will give his horses an experience first time out before getting serious. He switched to dirt in his second start and also cut back to seven furlongs. His early speed transferred to the new surface, as he got involved in a fast pace that ultimately came apart. The fractions of that race are color coded red in TimeformUS, and his pace-upgraded 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure puts him right in line with the two favorites even though his Beyers are a bit lower. Three horses who were within 3 1/2 lengths of that pace at the half-mile have run back, and they have improved their TimeformUS Speed Figures by 13, 25, and 26 points.
I'll focus my wagers on the Casse runner, and will try to spice things up by including a couple of first-time starters. Complex Charlie (#3) is bred to be a talented sprinter as a half-brother to stakes winner Firecrow and stakes-placed National Identity, and Carlos Martin can win with a first-time starter. Feroce (#4) goes out for underrated 2-year-old trainer Chad Summers and looked pretty quick working 10-flat at OBS June earlier this year.