Aqueduct | Race 10 | Post Time 5:18 p.m. (ET)
This Derby prep did not come up nearly as strong as the other two major points races taking place this weekend in Florida and Arkansas. Given the perception that this is a weaker field, a horse who ran as fast as Iron Honor (#6) on debut is going to be viewed as a very likely winner. Indeed, if he repeats the 95 Beyer or 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he was assigned in that debut win, he's probably going to beat this field. However, he did have some things working in his favor that day. The track was speed-favoring on Dec. 13, and he and the runner-up dominated the race toward the front end. Chad Brown is just 12 for 67 (18%, $0.85 ROI) with second-time starters facing winners on dirt over the last 5 years. I don't view a victory by this horse as some kind of fait accompli, and the race figures to be bet along those lines.
A couple of his main rivals are turning back in distance. Crown the Buckeye (#3) should appreciate getting back into a one-turn race since he was unable to finish over longer distances in his recent starts at Fair Grounds. However, he has plenty of early speed and could get caught up in a quick pace.
The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which may benefit a horse like Hammond (#2). He has gotten tough trips in two of his last three starts. He was steadied in the early stages en route to winning a maiden race last September. More recently, he overcame a poor start and wide trip to get up for third behind talented stablemate Solitude Dude. He has to prove he can get a mile here, but he appears to be heading in the right direction.
My top pick is Right to Party (#5). He finished nine lengths behind the favorite on debut back in December, but this is the horse I would prefer out of that race. He was trying to close into a speed bias going a distance that appears to be too short for him. I would have liked to see him take more of a step forward when he broke his maiden last time in a slow race, but he still finished strongly going this distance despite hanging on his left lead all the way through the lane. He's still a work in progress and can take another step forward here given a favorable pace setup.